There is a time for everything

[VLSroulette]

To me roulette is a game of streaks.

There is a time for sleepers, there is a time for HOT, there is a time for warm. THERE IS A TIME FOR EVERYTHING. For dozens/columns to repeat, for a location to come exactly at what probability dictates...a time for balance or imbalance... whatever you can think of.

The DISPERSION/CONCENTRATION of hits is what counts, to the ones rising the unit value and to some extent flat bettors also need the hits to come before the bankroll gets eaten, even if the long-term says you will only lose 2.7% flat betting, that is -100% if you get a huge tram without hits which depletes your whole bankroll.

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When we use a progression we can at some extent win with less than expected hit ratio. Progressional players' #1 enemy is dispersion of hits. Then we have to use the "events" and the "trends" trying to lower that dispersion.

Guarantees? Not a single one. BUT I'm playing the way I am hunting trends and events because in my perception things do group. Of course, in the long term the hit ratio should be as the mathematicians say, with decimals. The thing is... I won't be standing with a progression for the long term, but the goal is looking to win my short-term session, so I focus in whatever event/trend I perceive can lower dispersion at the current moment shall the current scenario continue.

*Scenario as in a combination of sucesive spins in a timeframe which "paint" an statistical landscape for the current moment.

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There is people who think of roulette as a single-spin game. All of the discussions of "trends" and "events" are not valid to them.

Well guys. When confronted about whatever combination of numbers you think having the same probability to hit next spin, say: I'm not analyzing 1 spin only. :wink:

Best regards to you all.
Victor

Gizmotron

To me roulette is a game of streaks. (snip)...

*Scenario as is a combination of successive spins in a timeframe which "paint" an statistical landscape for the current moment.

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There is people who think of roulette as a single-spin game. All of the discussions of "trends" and "events" are not valid to them.

...Victor

Regarding "Scenario" In order to view a scene perhaps you need to be standing in the right place to see it well. Perhaps you walk up to a table where 20 blacks and then 20 reds and then 20 blacks just happened perfectly. All you see in the Black/Rd chart is the 20 blacks. Now anyone that was there for a while would probably switch to the reds now. But all you have seen is a perfect pattern of black. What I'm talking about is "Scenario" within a perspective or context.

This example is an extreme case of a scenario but I wanted it to be clear. A decision based on a scenario must also have one other attribute added to it.  You see what is happening in context but will it continue to happen when you place a bet on it? How long will the scenario continue to last? So I add "Lifespan" to "Scenario."  What might be nice is a statistical painting that lasts for a while before the paint melts.

So if we go hunting for lifespan scenarios it might be fun to post examples of them and how we capitalized on them.

For the single-spin as a single event gamers, I have this to say: I have seen patterns that form a perfect pattern and that last for a while, where 30 to 40 spin patterns occur. If you are not looking for them then you probably won't see them. So lets go hunting and posting them. We could talk about what to do with them when you see them.

Mark

VLSroulette

Hi Mark,

This "Roulette & gambling framework" subforum is the precise spot for this type of discussion!.

I like you added the "lifespan" dimention. This is in line with arteinvivo's explanation of trends, adding a time dimention to it.

Regarding me, my "time" dimension is a "cycle". These should be respected and performance measured in batches of their "ideal frequency".

For instance when tracking a 12-number event (May it be a dozen, or two lines or 3 corners... whatever the 12-numbers are), the cycle to count is is 3 spins.

So in the "timeline" of that 12-number event:

1 in 3 spins = Expected.
2/3 in 3 spins = More than expected.
0 times in 3 spins = Dispersion.

For a line it is 1 in 6 spins.
For a corner it should be 1 in 9 spins.
For a split 1 in 18, etc. etc.

A full cycle of spins gets calculated according to 36 divided by the amount of numbers covered.

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THIS IS WHEN IT GETS FUN
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What we call "trend" is an agrupation of numerical occurrences in a timeframe. We can track whatever we want and say: This is trending, this is coming as expected, this event is having dispersion.

In this regard, whatever you are tracking, the time to enter is when it is "trending" i.e. coming more than expected. You have to drop it when it faces dispersion.

The importance of having selection criteria is for us to determine what is "HOT" and "WARM". This is basically what we should be betting. Never cold locations.

The only exceptions for betting cold are the "Statistical return" and the "Statistical max" areas.

The "return" is the most common point where a sleeper comes back. They do form a bell curve. Say for a dozen at your casino's wheel it is most common for a sleeping dozen to come back from spins 9 to 12, then this is YOUR return zone.

The "max" is obviously the higest point of absense withnessed by the punter.

In my opinion think these values should better be held as a "per person" basis rather than in a generic "worldwide" form.

For instance some of us will die without seeing a streak of 30 reds or 30 blacks. BUT others will see it. Therefore betting the "statistical max" will be profitable for all those guys seeing 20+ but never reaching the 30's.

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Small excercise:

Go to nolinks.random.org and generate several sets of random lines for a location:

1 to 3 for dozens.
1 to 6 for lines.
1 to 9 for corners.
1 to 12 for streets.
1 to 18 for splits.

Pick one location for the excercise. Say you go for the "lines". Highlight the hits and jump from line to line when it concentrates hit. Remember:

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NOT EVERY CONCENTRATION OF HITS TURNS INTO A TREND; BUT...
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...But every trend starts with a concentration of hits.

Meaning for an excercise like the above your selection criterion is "random selection" and you are entering only after a concentration of hits (2 or more shows in a cycle) and hold your bet for as long as it is concentrating hits OR coming as expected: 1 time per cycle. Get out of the selection criterion as soon as it faces dispersion. I.e. not coming even 1 time at a given cycle.

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That's a fun excercise. I remember having done it for lines just to be certain the concentration/dispersion in Lw's is the same for random selection... and it is.

The basic concentration/dispersion-surfing techniques can be applied to that, but still I prefer a traditional criterion to the random line for real-money play

Have fun,
Your friend.
Victor.

Gizmotron

Hi Mark,

This "Roulette & gambling framework" subforum is the precise spot for this type of discussion!.

I like you added the "lifespan" dimention. This is in line with arteinvivo's explanation of trends, adding a time dimention to it.

Regarding me, my "time" dimension is a "cycle". These should be respected and performance measured in batches of their "ideal frequency".

Very good! A measurement system based on a construct, factor, or base of reference.
This is perfect, based on a "cycle of ideal frequency." Without a baseline there can be ambiguity in our explanations.

I must ask these two questions.

1. Are you getting ready to write a book?

2. Is that a real tattoo or just an excellent photoshop overlay?

For instance when tracking a 12-number event (May it be a dozen, or two lines or 3 corners... whatever the 12-numbers are), the cycle to count is is 3 spins.

So in the "timeline" of that 12-number event:

1 in 3 spins = Expected.
2/3 in 3 spins = More than expected.
0 times in 3 spins = Dispersion.

For a line it is 1 in 6 spins.
For a corner it should be 1 in 9 spins.
For a split 1 in 18, etc. etc.

A full cycle of spins gets calculated according to 36 divided by the amount of numbers covered.

I get it, I think. "Dispersion" is like a fragmentation or deviation from the promising pattern being tracked perhaps?

==================
THIS IS WHEN IT GETS FUN
==================

What we call "trend" is an agrupation of numerical occurrences in a timeframe. We can track whatever we want and say: This is trending, this is coming as expected, this event is having dispersion.

In this regard, whatever you are tracking, the time to enter is when it is "trending" i.e. coming more than expected. You have to drop it when it faces dispersion.

I get it now. The inclusion of a repeating pattern that also includes times when a group of numbers does not hit. In other words when the best time to bet your specified group is.

The importance of having selection criteria is for us to determine what is "HOT" and "WARM". This is basically what we should be betting. Never cold locations.

This area of thought is what I have been focusing on for the past decade. It has gotten me into all kinds of trouble. My experience is that wanting an already or hoped for trend I try to concentrate on seeing it. What I often find is that an unlooked for pattern of some kind of "cycle of ideal frequency" appears before me instead. So I jump on that new trend right away.

For me, I have only once attempted to attack with great vigor the appearance of a temporary weakness in the normal occurrences of binomial distribution ( my reference point for years). I adopt "cycle of ideal frequency" as my new norm for this. What I have learned in the last two weeks is that a short term all out attack is better than a long playing, low bets, hopeful grind. I will explain this at another time but for now only will explain that well formed and long lasting cycles of ideal frequency are the only ones worth betting low valued units. You see I like to have an expectation for the time I invest at the table. I can reach that expectation in a very short time with an all out attack. I have noticed that cycles of ideal frequency occur for the short term far more times than the hoped for long term cycles.

Mark

Gizmotron

For me, I have only once attempted to attack with great vigor the appearance of a temporary weakness in the normal occurrences of binomial distribution ( my reference point for years). I adopt "cycle of ideal frequency" as my new norm for this....
Mark

So this is what happened in real play the one time I went for it. That night and ever since then I have liked looking at these 12 numbers on the American, 00, wheel; the numbers 1, 2, 27, 28, 0, 00, 17, 18, 5, 6, 31, and 32.

When I saw this pattern I bet the first bet with $5, one for each # in the cycle. When that hit I let that ride to $15 per number. I then placed a single $5 on red. Next step I placed $15 on each # in the cycle. When that hit I let it ride at $45 per number in the cycle. That hit so I went back to the  single $5 on red. I kept up this betting scheme of $15 - $45 - $5 on red until it fell apart. I got up and walked away. That was incredible. There was a crowd like I was some kind of celebrity all of a sudden. It was, a a few minutes like a big exciting moment at a Craps table.

Code Select Expand

Here is the chart of what it looks like:
Wins___|__B___R___|__L___H___|___O___E__|__L___M___H__|___B___M___T__|_Forty_Spins

____0__|______12__|__12______|______12__|__12__________|__________12__|___1__X||X|
____0__|_______1__|___1______|___1______|___1__________|___1__________|___2__|X||
____0__|______30__|______30__|______30__|__________30__|__________30__|___3__||X|
____0__|__00__00__|__00__00__|__00__00__|__00__00__00__|__00__00__00__|___4__|||
____0__|__28______|______28__|______28__|__________28__|__28__________|___5__|||
____0__|______14__|__14______|______14__|______14______|______14______|___6__|XX||
__120__|___6______|___6______|_______6__|___6__________|___________6__|___7__|||
__480__|__17______|__17______|__17______|______17______|______17______|___8__|X||
__475__|___8______|___8______|_______8__|___8__________|_______8______|___9__|||
__835__|______32__|______32__|______32__|__________32__|______32______|__10__|||
_1915__|___6______|___6______|_______6__|___6__________|___________6__|__11__|||X
_1910__|__24______|______24__|______24__|______24______|__________24__|__12__X|||
_2265__|___2______|___2______|_______2__|___2__________|_______2______|__13__|||
_3345__|___0___0__|___0___0__|___0___0__|___0___0___0__|___0___0___0__|__14__X|||
_3350__|______36__|______36__|______36__|__________36__|__________36__|__15__|||
_3710__|_______1__|___1______|___1______|___1__________|___1__________|__16__|||
_3170__|__26______|______26__|______26__|__________26__|______26______|__17__|X||
_3175__|______23__|______23__|__23______|______23______|______23______|__18__|||
_3535__|______27__|______27__|__27______|__________27__|__________27__|__19__|||
_2995__|_______3__|___3______|___3______|___3__________|___________3__|__20__|||
_2990__|__11______|__11______|__11______|__11__________|______11______|__21__|||
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__22__|||
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__23__||X|
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__24__|X||
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__25__|||
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__26__||X|
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__27__||X|
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__28__X|||
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__29__|||
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__30__X|||
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__31__|||
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__32__|X||
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__33__|||
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__34__|||
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__35__|||
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__36__||X|
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|___0__||X|
_______|__________|__________|__________|______________|______________|__00__X|||


Mark

VLSroulette

1. Are you getting ready to write a book?

I am always ready to share with those ones willing to listen my way of understanding this game.

Shall I ever write a book, it must be in electronic form, completely free, to be there for everyone for the taking. I wouldn't consider a way other than freely sharing information.

Hey! Sharing over the Internet will save trees because no need for trees to be killed for paperback support (yep, trees are living creatures too). Better for them to bring oxygen to the world!

2. Is that a real tattoo or just an excellent photoshop overlay?






ARTEINVIVO


VLS wrote :

1 in 3 spins = Expected.
2/3 in 3 spins = More than expected.
0 times in 3 spins = Dispersion

Just a thought since in a cycle of 36 spins we have 12 no. which will hit 1x, 12 no. 2x and 12 no. 0x. Does it mean that 0 times in 3 spins = Expected instead of dispersion.

This is just a thought and in line with what we call the law of third. You must think about what EXPECTED really mean when you observe a stream of spins such as 36 spins etc.

VLSroulette

Hi art.

Since when using Lw's we play in the VERY short term, we use the ideal value for the lest amount of spins: the cycle.

I'm very aware for instance:
nolinksnolinkswLLL <- This is an OK distribution when joining several cycles, but we try to use the shortest measure, which means for dozens we only use the 3-spin one.

I only consider the full 37-spin cycle for the straight-up.

[VLSroulette]

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