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Why you shouldn't wait for "X events in a row"

Started by alarian, February 09, 2009, 05:30:31 AM

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

alarian

I never had any intentions of starting a fight  :-[

I've read through all my posts and I can't see where I've instulted Winkel, called him a liar or lectured him...
I think he's a great man and I try to learn as much I can from him...

alarian

Ok, I can see what you've misinterpreted as me lecturing Winkel...
Is it about when I compare his betting against mine???

I don't think he's doing "His thing" there... Since it's the basic strategy he keeps saying is a losing strategy and that if you win using that it's because of luck...

I'm aiming at trying to learn these more advanced strategies he's talking about and since he's not sharing them except in riddles and vague hints I have to try and find it myself using whatever information he has provided.

A good thing to learn from, I thought, was to use this wonderful test where he's published several sessions using basic strategy and even some with advanced selections. I'm not here to brag or anything like that... If I find a strategy that beats the basic, then maybe I'm a step closer to finding the real deal he has?

alarian



TwoCatSam

Alarian

Yes, people have selective memory; that is why I never rely on memory.  My mind will lie to me.  On that we can agree.

And, yes, I took your comment about that subject as an insult.  If you did not mean it that way, we can let it go.  It certainly struck me that way, but maybe I took it wrong.

I'm good with all this if you are.   :)

Sam

See_Jerek

Can I make some statements?

I am a relatively new roulette player compared to all of you,when I first came here no one wanted to teach me anything at all.It was Lanky who spend his time and painstakingly taught me how to play something decent,that is the LWs and give me a 1st lesson on money management with his 6 point divisor.I am sure Lanky will always go the extra mile for another fellow new comer.

As for Sam,he is a system tester here.He has tested almost everything here in the forum and he knows much of the systems here.Drop him a PM on any system and he will be there to answer your questions and help you.

Alarian,you have just came here with your new section and I have not seen your work or contributions yet but somehow I can feel you are sincere and just trying to help as well.I really wish to see some money making ideas and your bots anytime soon.

For myself,I never like progressions,they kill.I have been to the point of no return several times therefore I know the dangers of them.Currently,I am playing a system with much success with some form of progression,I am playing it becos I have never played anything that performs so well.All the flat bet systems I have learn are all worthless to me,just could not learn anything new with flat bets for my liking.

So whats my point?

I hope all of you can chill and make peace,I always believe that we players have one common enemy and that is the casino.We should stay united and do something constructive for our community instead of passing unconstructive and negative remarks.This sort of atmosphere dampens the mood as well.

Shall all of us move on with this incident?Put it behind us can we do that?

See_Jerek

Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 21, 2009, 06:47:38 PM
Alarian

Yes, people have selective memory; that is why I never rely on memory.  My mind will lie to me.  On that we can agree.

And, yes, I took your comment about that subject as an insult.  If you did not mean it that way, we can let it go.  It certainly struck me that way, but maybe I took it wrong.

I'm good with all this if you are.   :)

Sam

Sam,thats the way to go! :thumbsup:
The usual chirpy and funny TCS  ;D

winkel

My name is mentioned in this discussion several times, so I have to make a statement, I think.

I hope I am allowed to say I´m proud that so many people read my strategy and work on it, doing Excel-Sheets, HTML-sheets and lots of testing.

I also know that some of my statements seem to be contradictional. but please read my last statements in the Original thread.
There is written, what I understand of the most advanced way to play.

I further am working of some more statistic to make you see "what is going on".

I think there are a lot of tests that show, that the basic strategy even with Iron rules and static play til spin 50 is possible to work out a nice and quiet game risking not that amount of Bankroll you usually lose playing an Progression to win 1 single chip.
and I said this is only basic. The advanced way is on your own abilitiy to see what is going on. This is the point, that gives you the hint to bet or not to bet. to jump or to stay in the trot. Jump out of a losing streak and you will land in a winning streak with a rate of 2to1.

At least I call it "Gamblers Intelligence"! Gambler´s Fallacy is to stay on the bet because it has to show up at last. I just say: see the losing streak and jump out of it.

And back to progressions: If you have seen what is going on and you are comfortable in a winning streak, why not double unit-size for a while. Or after a bad period of 3 or four losing sessions start with a triple bet-size. and if you are very comfortable with the game and your decisions: why not select bet-size to win with next hit all losses back.

That means:
Progression of hate, because I lost is a bad thing.
But Progression to get my bankroll back, knowing that I win the next bet for sure, is a kind of Moneymanagement.

GUT just delivers these informations. Just see: Wait until a streak is broken. Gut shows that if e.g. "0"(or "1" is steadily rising and not falling) fall asleep they will sleep for a long time, once they broke doing that, you can easily bet and win on them, despite of being at a crossing or not.

TCS worke his way through all the losses and wins and met himself being to much selfconfident. But he learned of that. I think this is a part of GUT.

Nobody should go, press the rules into 10 sentences and belive he will win forever. That won´t work.

As I said: the rules of Chess (GUT) don´t make you win. And an aggessive jump of the queen (Progression) doesn´t save you from losing the war!

br
winkel




alarian

Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 21, 2009, 06:47:38 PM
Alarian

Yes, people have selective memory; that is why I never rely on memory.  My mind will lie to me.  On that we can agree.

And, yes, I took your comment about that subject as an insult.  If you did not mean it that way, we can let it go.  It certainly struck me that way, but maybe I took it wrong.

I'm good with all this if you are.   :)

Sam
I never had any other intensions but to make you my friend right from the start...
And anyone else who's here for more than just information

TwoCatSam

OK, as Lanky says, "We're sweet."  Now change that goofy pic and get on with it.

Sam

alarian

Quote from: TwoCatSam on February 21, 2009, 06:57:52 PM
OK, as Lanky says, "We're sweet."  Now change that goofy pic and get on with it.
No way! I had too much fun making it, you have to admit it makes you laugh

OK I'll change it...

Mr J

Another comment on progessions. Yes I defend them, sorry. I'll pick ANYTHING as an example >>> Lets say you wanted to only bet on one number. I dont care how you picked the number but lets just say one number using a progression. Lets say I can get around 90 spins for one number with some very nice NET wins. The total if I lose will be around $2,800. My question is this >>> If you only have enough money (or nerves) to play up to 55 spins and then lose.....does it matter if your number would of hit in the next 35 spins? Assuming you stay there and watch. It should matter to you. No one should put down due/progression if they are ONLY looking it at from the point of view of a small BR. I am NOT knocking small BRs but it does not mean other ideas will not work.  Ken

xman1970

Quote from: alarian on February 21, 2009, 06:54:11 PM
I never had any other intensions but to make you my friend right from the start...
And anyone else who's here for more than just information

Hi Alarian,

               Sorry but I'm a bit confused by your statement above ??? My roulette knowledge is somewhat limited compared to a lot of people here. So I attempt to learn & evolve from the people & the information available on this forum.
               
Unfortunately from the way I read your above statement that would mean I won't be your friend :(

I can only assume I have got the wrong end of the stick, as normal  :-[ If you could take a moment to explain your quote that would be greatly appreciated..... :thumbsup:


Cheers.....[smiley=beer.gif]

alarian

Quote from: xman1970 on February 21, 2009, 07:55:31 PM
Hi Alarian,

               Sorry but I'm a bit confused by your statement above ??? My roulette knowledge is somewhat limited compared to a lot of people here. So I attempt to learn & evolve from the people & the information available on this forum.
               
Unfortunately from the way I read your above statement that would mean I won't be your friend :(

I can only assume I have got the wrong end of the stick, as normal  :-[ If you could take a moment to explain your quote that would be greatly appreciated..... :thumbsup:


Cheers.....[smiley=beer.gif]

From your post count I'd take it you're here for more than just leeching information. You're exchanging knowledge and from what I've seen you've made some friends aswell...

Mr J

Thats it.....everyone here is invited over at my place for drinks tonight! And dancing girls.  Ken

Mr J

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