How is the water today ?

[Stepydan]

Hello all

I was born in a small island in indian ocean.  It is sometimes a round of the world surfing championship, since it has a unique wave coming from left.  In that area of the island surfers go each and everyday :"how is the water today ?" by which they mean : is it possible to surf or not ?

What does this has to do with roulette ? You may ask.  Stay with me, I'll try to explain.

I just uploaded a calc (open office) file in the members only download section.  It is called the Multi_Lw tracker. 

Why did I choose calc over excel, which I also have ?
First, I like it when it is free.  Second, I don't think excel can do one specific thing that makes openoffice calc very interesting in my opinion : opening two instances of the same file.  With this feature, you can view two different areas of your spreadsheet and organize it throughout your screen.  (See pictures below)

What is this file for ? I would say it is in between a simple spreadsheet and a software.  It helped me test new ideas about roulette, and I think you may find it handy, too.

So now I will present those ideas, and then how I implemented them :

• First thing first, the basis is "Lw", dozens and columns.  The Multi_Lw tracker reproduces the tracks you can find in Victor's software.

• Second, I wanted to explore further this - now - understood concept of "Lw" with even chances.  Indeed, there are three types of even chances : red-black, even-odd, high-low.  Haha.  There are also three dozens and three columns.  What can we do with that ? Since it is dangerous to play only red-black, or high low, or to wait x misses then bet, etc, would it not be far less dangerous to try and combine those ? So I came up with eight possible configurations : Red-Even-Low; Red-Even-High, Red-Odd-Low, . . . . . .  Black-Odd-High.  See all of them in the file.  Then we can imagine different scenarios :
  - what are the two last combinations (ROL-BEH for example) ? And did the ball hit those, or one of the six remaining ?
  - what are the three last combinations, and did the ball hit those, or one of the 5 remaining ?
  etc.

• Third, what about the wheel ? There are also ways to divide it into three parts.  This, plus the idea of the wheel being a kind of clock, led to the following idea : suppose the ball hits one number, I want to know if from there it is going to hit the same again, or one of its 24 followers, in wheel order, and clockwise ? Or, if time goes in reverse ways, what if next hit the ball goes either to the same, the 12 following, or the previous 12 ones ?
  

[Stepydan]

To cut a long story short, here is what I decided to cast away from this file :

• My original two-cadences thing (see the corresponding thread conclusion to find out why).

• For the group analysis (REH, REL, etc), one did hit versus seven did not hit, one hit in the last three versus jump in the five remaining. The tests were not good at all
  

• A true 2 out of 3 cadence analysis, since it gives very good results in "Lw" form, but you have to put 29 chips down very often. Not cool in case of a loss, it would need 5 wins to recover (not considering 6 divisor here, just the sake of the analysis).
  

Ok now it is time to show what the Multi_Lw tracker looks like.

• First pic, the classic Dozens-columns tracker, and the 2 group jump tracker.

• Second pic, scroll down, and see remaining trackers and bet advisors : 4 group, 24 neighbours, 12 before, 12 after.

• Third pic, what you get when you open the file twice : you can resize one frame just to input numbers, both frames fill the whole screen, and you navigate freely into the same file, (but a different frame).

[Stepydan]

You may have also noticed there are several tabs. Let's talk about them.

While playing, you are going to spend a lot of time screening the first : "Main". For each spin you can have a look at the different trackers to see what is happening. There is an automatic counting feature above each track that tells you how many "LLLw"s, "LLLLw"s etc you get.
As in Victor's, there are also betting advisors.

The second one is where all the "cooking" takes place : I have hidden nothing there. You can study and verify each and every formula used. I would gladly fix any pointed mistake.

The four following tabs are places where I have put statistics for each phenomenon. So after each session, you can copy and paste the results into the table below, and then calculate mean and SD. If I am not being clear here, have a look at the file, I guess you will see some light.
I have included 32 to 64 results from Wiesbaden permanences studied in those stats. Since the tracker goes up to 90 spins, that is an analysis from about 2,700 to 5,400 spins. A little more testing than my previous attempt, it seems 

The following tab is where you can store permanences for future analysis, at your will. From there you either input a formula in the "Main" tab to get the spins, or simply copy and paste. I have preloaded two recent Wiesbaden permanences, at your convenience.

The last tab is the basis for the wheel analysis and subsequent tracker.

In the last pic, you can have a feeling of what you get when you start inputting spins.

[Stepydan]

Numbers in red are those repeated once. If they repeat twice or more, you'll have another layout (cell background will turn pink).

I have also incorporated a small macro that triggers the pseudo-random number generator included in calc. This is a no brainer.

Ok enough of the technical part.

What has this tool done for me, what can it (possibly) do for you ?

• 1. When you input permanences, you can see patterns form instantly, and take your time to study them.
  This is how I decided which track to keep, and which to reject. So it helped me put the "pass" certificate on my hypotheses (or not).

• 2. You can also record your wins and losses. There are no formulas here to help, because it depends on what you decide to play.

• 3. You can count the "bad" patterns and build a strategy based upon statistics : how many times on average did "LLLLw" appear in that track of 90 spins, so when is it ok to start betting, etc.

• 4. But the true and very interesting thing with this tool is you can "monitor" the water, and decide whether it would be a good idea to play at a particular time.
  Sometimes you will see the perfect setting for one or several tracks : "nolinksnolinkswwLnolinksnolinkswLnolinkswLnolinksw" etc.
  Other times you will see hell : "wwLwLnolinksLwwLwLLwLwwLLwLLLLLLLLLLwLwLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLwwL". Those are not real patterns, they are just examples out of my imagination, but roulette can do better.
  

While working at this, I on many occasions thought of vets words such as "roulette is a game of streaks", "there will be bad days", "no system can win 100%". So sometimes the dozen LD track is not playable, at all ! Yes the very famous dozen "Lw" system. Sometimes it will be other tracks.

So my conclusion is similar to what Lanky once wrote : wait for x number of spins (I recall he wrote 20 spins) before deciding to jump into play.

In other words, always ask "how is the water today ?"

Cheers, 

Stepydan.

[Carlitos]

Thanks Stepydan for your thoughts and insights  But now you got me curious in knowing which island it is were you com from?? Must be very nice, with white beaches and turguas ( light blue ) seas??




Carlitos 

[Carlitos]

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