Can the game of Roulette be beat with a system?

[Advantage.Player]

Can the game of Roulette be beat by attacking it with a system?

Well this is the exact same question I asked my self after wasting time on progressions and "systems".

You see the game of roulette is unfair as we all know - numbers pay 35 to 1 when to be fair it should be 37 to 1 - in other words the expected value for each win is less than it should be to make the game fair.

This is the same for ALL the bets - no matter what your bet is there is always the odds stacked against you.

So this, (for me) ruled out ALL the "systems" that require the use of special combinations of bets on the board which make you win x percentage of the time with y profit and all that jazz.

Really you cant expect to win at with that unless you play for the "Short Run" apposed to the "Long run".

So to have a "system" that you expect to play regularly and to win...it NEEDS to over come the house edge.



How do we do this?

Well it already has been done this the famous wheel bias and a few roulette computers. However a wheel bias is almost non existent because its in the casino own intentions to keep the wheel random other wise their unfair game for us may become unfair to them if people find out this bias.

Secondly a roulette computer is not very practical due to their cost and the fact they are illegal.



So what's left to do?

Well it in fact the wheel isn't as random as you think.

If you try this system Here call the "Williams" nolinks://nolinks.freeadultstuff.us/gamble/302systems/Williams.pdf you may find it works reasonably good.

I mean if the croupier uses their right hand (most peoples right hands are dominant between their two hands) this kind of makes the spins more consistent.

However this system sometimes works and on other occasions it fails miserably.

A similar variation to this is where if you find a croupier that spins the ball clockwise one time, then anti clockwise the other time or one direction all the time (hence predictable) and this allows you play in a way where you will gain an advantage.

Say the ball travels (on the spin we are going to play on) in the clockwise direction and lets assume the ball will land in the same area of the wheel (roughly) because the croupier (most of them) are consistent.

Now if 18 came up last... and the ball is going clockwise THIS time we will bet the next 8 to 12 number that are clockwise of 18 (including 18). This takes the balls direction into account and the fact similar number come up to the last one from the same area of the wheel.

This system; yet again, works great on some days and poorly on others - However I've found a 15 - 20% more hit rate than expected if i just bet on any random 8 - 12 numbers. And the same goes for the "Williams" system.



In addition you can use some basic math to work out a strategy to play. Say we are going to bet on the 1 - 1 bets (colors, odd/even and high or low).

And we know there are 18 of each out of a possible 37 outcomes (single zero wheel). Now if we do 60 spins we would expect 18/37 X 60 (probability of success times number of trials), which is an expected 29.19 hits on our 1 - 1 bets. So lets round it off to 29 hit.

Now if we chart the wheel for 60 spins and say we have 24 hits on red and 35 hits on black (take zero into account). We can see that the red has fewer hits than black. So now we take this into account.



The hit rate of any out come in roulette follows a bell curve nolinks://racerocks.com/racerock/education/curricula/projects/normalcurve.jpg which at the highest point lies the expected value (or 29 in our case of 60 spins).

So we also know that while the wheel being pretty much random it will have its hit rate for each bet more than expected and less than expected at times. This HAS to happen so that the outcomes follow the bell curve and have and average in the middle (29 in our case of 60 spins).

So if we hit less than 29 on our "virtual" game we should expect it to hit more than 29 on the next lot of 60 spins...

So now we flat bet on red for the next 60 spins and in a perfect world we would come out with 35 hits which after to 60 spins in virtual and 60 spins in game (120 all up) we would have our expected number of hits... 58 (expected value of hits after 120 spins) and low and behold 24 hits from before in virtual plus 34 hits now gives us 58 (taking a slight number fudging into account due to rounding).

So if we hit at exactly the same amount as our expected value we don't make or lose any money. If we hit less we lose (good thing we saved that for virtual play) and if we hit more than expected value we WIN. So here we hit 6 times more than expected so that makes 6 units profit - mind you 1 unit could be the max bet of the table if bankroll permitted or anywhere between $50 to $250 per bet.



Now you can scale this down to 20 trials and 10 hits as expected value BUT the more spins you do the more accurate it is and this means the safer you are especially if you bet the max bet (for a lot of profit to be gained!).

This is the only way I see you can apply maths to roulette seeing as the ball has no memory.

Also you can apply this expected value stuff to dozens /columns or lines but I prefer to stick to the 1 - 1 bets and then chart all the 1 to 1 bets than make my choice before I bet.

Well that's enough form me - sorry the long post.

- Mark

[Advantage.Player]

One more thing (lol here i go )

You can some times make a system viable if you have a progression THAT is long enough to ensure that your bet must be hit and to ensure that a) u make no loss or b) you make profit.

However this is difficult due to the tables max and minimum bet and also the fact that say your number etc doesn't hit for longer than your progression can go?

now what? you lose a considerable amount of money!

However, as a guide if it your progrssion lasts for more than 15 - 20 misses on even bets or 5 misses  on two dozens (bet on 2 dozens) or 10 misses on one dozen (bet on 1 dozen) you should not have any problems with a losing streak.

In addition to calculate your probability of being it you do this...

Work out to probability for losing and then put how many spins your going to play for as the index (power) and times by 100 to convert to percent...

So if i play 15 spins according to my made up progression and i bet on red that means ((18/37)^15) x 100 which gives me the chance of losing on my last step as 0.002023 % - not much at all but if i remember in history to most recorded colors were 21 blacks in a row making the probability of that as 0.00002682 %.

So although the chance of losing is relatively low - you must always remember one thing - EVERYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

Well thats enough from me.

         - Mark

[gizmotron]

Thank you Victor, or the magic forum genie, for moving this to an original thread.

[Advantage.Player]

  lol sorry...

I kind of started to answer your question then got lost in my own babble  

Thanks for fixing it Victor

[admin]

No beef at all Advantage Player!

Look at it like your post was fully standing on its own, so it deserves its standalone entry at the section.  [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

[cps10]

This is great post, Advantage Player. I would be interested in testing this theory for sure. I bet if you were to use the evens theory, that you could use a pluscoup type progression to take advantage of win streaks. Or perhaps an Oscar's grind type negative progression to limit your losses.

[Advantage.Player]

Yea it could very possibly Work great.

But no matter what i find, try or think of (I've tested 70+ systems let alone the ones i was thinking of!) and i always turn back to the Lw strategy designed by Victor.

Yesterday i tried it. I spun up sum numbers and on average within 20 spins i already had my patterns made and i could start betting. Out of six times i had any where between an 83% hit rate all the way up to a 100% hit rate. This works out to be an "advantage" of 18% to 35% over the casino  

At the time i was flat betting with $100 chips. After the 6 games (none longer than 55 spins) i made $3400 profit not bad at all - however i was do this at home on my wheel, not for real money   oh well it gives me plenty of hope to try it out for real.

Once again thank you Victor for kindly sharing your strategy  

[cps10]

Yea it could very possibly Work great.

But no matter what i find, try or think of (I've tested 70+ systems let alone the ones i was thinking of!) and i always turn back to the Lw strategy designed by Victor.

Yesterday i tried it. I spun up sum numbers and on average within 20 spins i already had my patterns made and i could start betting. Out of six times i had any where between an 83% hit rate all the way up to a 100% hit rate. This works out to be an "advantage" of 18% to 35% over the casino  

At the time i was flat betting with $100 chips. After the 6 games (none longer than 55 spins) i made $3400 profit not bad at all - however i was do this at home on my wheel, not for real money   oh well it gives me plenty of hope to try it out for real.

Once again thank you Victor for kindly sharing your strategy  

Are you playing streets, lines, dozens or evens with the Lw?

[cage77]

Where can Victors LW system be found?

[Advantage.Player]

I play the Lw method on columns: i see the columns as a decent bet with strong patterns and i use the columns instead of the dozens as they appear more random.

You can find Victors Lw methods on this page nolinks://vlsroulette.6.forumer.com/viewforum.php?f=1&sid=a6331aa3afdde6e280935db778207be3 there are a few variations to its but the whole idea is of Victors strategy which he developed.

It is a big read so be prepared i read all the info i could find on Victors system and boy did i pay off  8-)

[cps10]

Thanks Advantage.Player. I think columns are better too, although I would probably prefer to use wheel dozens/baker dozens as it is hard for the dealer to miss those an extensive amount of time I would think. At least a "fair" dealer anyway.

Victor's LW system is amazing that is for sure.

[Advantage.Player]

Yes charting sectors of the wheel and the hits on them would give better results (better hit rates) but covering those numbers on the board will be more difficult.

I like to play Victors Lw method and chart the LD as well as the JD and bet 100 dollars on each column - once i make in excess of 500 i quit. This way i make a decent amount of money and the bets are simple and it practically is rexlaxing while playing.

And your right, vitors Lw method sure is amazing  [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

[witho]

Can roulette be beaten with a system? Obviously there is no 1 system which will beat it consistently over the long run. In my opinion bet slelction is important, but we can never guarantee a good win / loss ratio, it depends a lot on luck.

What we do have control over is how much we bet and when. Also, how much profit we take in a session, and how much we will lose on a bad session before we cut our losses and call it quits.

Therefore I think money management is more important than bet selection, and this is the only way we can ever hope to stay ahead over time. I would like to think it can be done, otherwise we are wasting our time. I guess time will tell.

[witho]

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