LAW OF AVERAGES / THE LIMITED LAW OF LIKELY EVENTS

[Noble Savage]

What are the law of averages for the very short term?

A fallacy.

nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

Edit: lol you beat me to it Bayes.

[gizmotron]

It's called the gambler's fallacy. 

Oh, two really smart guys think this is the truth:

The law of averages for the very short term are that when something happens something else is due to happen.

That makes these two people foolish or inexperienced. Therefore their advice is suspect.

They can't read randomness and they get very angry over the topic. I would go as far as to say it must be expected. 

[Bayes]

Gizmo,

You keeping making these assumptions (I'm "very angry", I think I "deserve" proof). But none of this is actually the case. I find your posts mildly amusing, that's all. But there is a serious side; the newbies should be aware that you and spike have a long history of leading people on a merry dance.

[Noble Savage]

My favorite is the "don't listen to them, they can't read randomness!" argument.

[gizmotron]

Gizmo,

You keeping making these assumptions (I'm "very angry", I think I "deserve" proof). But none of this is actually the case. I find your posts mildly amusing, that's all. But there is a serious side; the newbies should be aware that you and spike have a long history of leading people on a merry dance.

We have a perfect history of keeping it from acknowledged experts. The newbies were never considered.

[gizmotron]

My favorite is the "don't listen to them, they can't read randomness!" argument.

That should read: Don't listen to them tell you what randomness means or what it has as characteristics, even when they tell you they have studied for years. The admitted they don't understand what I know. They are just guessing in the dark. 

[Herb6]

Gizmotron,

Why is it that you and Spike pretend to understand randomness when you don't comprehend the math involved in basic probability?  

[Spike!]

What are the law of averages for the very short term?>>>

Also, whats the math for short term probability? They're really great with the math for a million spins, whats the math for the next 10 spins. Don't say gamblers fallacy, thats not a law, its not math, its just a pleasant crutch you lean on. Where's the math for the next spin, MathBoyz?

[Herb6]

By the way, there is no "law of averages".  There is only the "law of large numbers".

[Spike!]

pretend to understand randomness when you don't comprehend the math involved in basic probability?>>

Herb, explain the math of short term probability, you know, the math of the next 10 spins. Pretend I've never heard it before, go into great detail. Thanks in advance.

[Noble Savage]

Herb, explain the math of short term probability, you know, the math of the next 10 spins. Pretend I've never heard it before, go into great detail. Thanks in advance.

Gees that's very basic stuff. Do your own research.

If you have a specific question, shoot.

[Herb6]

Noble,

They tried this game on GG too.  It didn't work there either.

[Spike!]

There is only the "law of large numbers".>>

Explain how the law of large numbers applies to the next spin, or the next 10 spins. Give me some guidelines on what to expect for the next spin, which is the only place the casino lets me bet. I asked them if I could bet on the next 1000 numbers and they said no, so I need the math for the next spin.

[Spike!]

If you have a specific question, shoot.>

Whats the math that says the next spin won't be black? Thanks.

<<They tried this game on GG too.>>

What game? Math isn't a game.

[Spike!]

Gees that's very basic stuff. Do your own research.>>

I just Googled 'short term probability math' and it came up with nothing. Lots of long term math, nothing for the next spin or the next 10 spins. I want to read about it, where do I look?

[Spike!]

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