LAW OF AVERAGES / THE LIMITED LAW OF LIKELY EVENTS

[Noble Savage]

If you have a specific question, shoot.>

Whats the math that says the next spin won't be black? Thanks.

Math doesn't say it will be black, nor does it say it will be red. It's about probabilities.

The probability that the next spin will be black is .5 (meaning 50%) and the same for red (not counting the house edge).  What happened in the previous spin, 30 spins before, last day's session, or last year's session are equally irrelevant to what may happen next because the probabilities remain the same.

I'm guessing you'll say that since the math does not say the next spin will be black then there is nothing stopping you from betting red and winning, then doing this (I.e. guessing right) consistently, over and over again.

The math doesn't state that you can't win the next spin, but it confidently states that the longer you play, the closer your results will reflect the true probabilities of the game. In other words, it states that there is a 50% chance you win the next spin, and so you can win, but you can't win consistently, you can only deviate up and down around the expected value.

Keep in mind that "math" isn't an entity that 'causes' this stuff to happen, only a language to quantify and describe it.

[Spike!]

The math doesn't state that you can't win the next spin>>

In fact, the math doesn't apply to the short term at all. Not the next spin, not the next 10 spins. It only applies to the extreme long term. And thats ASSUMING you bet without an edge. If you discover an edge, it cancels the math entirley.

>that "math" isn't an entity that 'causes' this stuff to happen>

The long term math is a guide that will eventually apply if you play cluelessly. It has nothing to do with the next spin, how could it? I was asking about the short term probability math, not this stuff.

[Noble Savage]

In fact, the math doesn't apply to the short term at all. Not the next spin, not the next 10 spins. It only applies to the extreme long term.

Define "apply".

- As far as the next spin is concerned: The math says you are 50% likely to win, 50% likely to lose. It's that simple.
- Based on that simple probability, you can use statistics to know how you'll perform in the long run.

The probability of the next (and each) spin tells you --> Your EV (expected value), which tells you --> How you'll perform in the long run.

What more do you want?

The short term probability is simple and constant. There are other games however that involve variable probability. For example the Monte Hall game involves variable probability.

[kav]

How you came to those conclusions/assumptions is beyond me.

1) Are you able to define the difference between a "chaotic system" and a "random walk"?

The weather is a chaotic system.
Roulette Red/Black outcomes are a simple random walk (the same with coin toss outcomes and lottery results).

2) The fact that each number has precisely the same chance is what makes the game random. In the long run, you get a Gaussian (bell-shaped) distribution of events, which is the main characteristic of a random process.

3) This is not exclusive to roulette randomness, but every simple random process in existence. e.g. coin tosses, lottery results, distribution of rain drops, etc.

You probably assumed that since you get such a nice looking long-term distribution then the game must be non-random.

You should first understand that not all people (here or anywhere) mean the same thing by the word "random". Random has a different meaning in everyday talk and a different meaning in scientific talk. This is what I am saying. So if you (or anyone else) wants to be understood clearly, should first define what one means by "random". How many readers do you think are able to clearly define the difference between a "chaotic system" and a "random walk"?

And NO the fact that "each number has precisely the same chance" is NOT what makes roulette "random". Roulette would still be "random" if each number had slightly different pocket size and therefore different chance. Still you wouldn't know which number will be next.

That's why I'm saying: be careful when using the word "random"

[Spike!]

The math says you are 50% likely to win, 50% likely to lose.>>

Thats like saying 'who knows', its a meaningless useless answer.

>The short term probability is simple and constant.>

It most certainly is NOT! Its a fact that anything can happen in the short term, thats why you can't seem to get a grip on it. The probability math ONLY applies to long term results, in the short term you can have 80 of the next 100 spins be red, I've seen it. There is no math governing short term probability, MathBoyz just pretend there is because they don't know what else to say.

[Noble Savage]

*sigh*

[Spike!]

Sigh? OK, show me where the outcomes in the short term are 'simple and constant' and obeying any kind of math. Saying its all 50/50 is not an answer, it means anything can happen in the short term, its not regulated by any math at all. Which means I can exploit it if I can correctly read the random.

[Herb6]

Spike, I don't think you're going to comprehend this one.

[Herb6]

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