Why do so many of us persist...

[bombus]

...with trying to create a completely mechanical system for roulette?

Is it because we simply don't trust our subjective judgement, hence removing any personal blame when things go awry? Or is it because a mechanical product can be packaged relatively easy for sale, or is it because "they" all say it can't be done?

I am interested to hear what the attraction is from anyone who has not given up on mechanical systems. 

[shadowman]

Perhaps it could be to do with the fact that you could play at any table in any casino and win money, also if you could win consistantly a reasonable amount you would have a recession proof job.  Plus if you could find a mechanical system you would have the satisfaction of having beaten random, which is a challange in itself.

[lucky_strike]

hi bombus

it is nothing wrong with a mechanical system
it is as good as it get

there is so many empty words about educate guess work
claims that you never can show how accurate they are

educated guess work is not more precise then a mechanical system
because fluctuation find it ways around all things you can think of

there is no escape

I can use random against random with one static rule and get the same results or as good as any educated guess or mechanical system
I guess it does not matter what you do because in the long term the timeline of distribution will be the same

an edge is not some-thing that comes by it self
you need a real momentum to develop and real advantage
like a dominant drop zone that can be a part of that

but you cant turnaround numbers or use clustering and think it will create an edge
it does not exist

LS

[lucky_strike]

I also want to add this...
This is why I from now on put Dealer Signature in the same category as any mechanical system as long there is no real physics involved.
The common aspect is that they use distance and cross over patterns.

LS

[Tangram]

a mechanical product can be packaged relatively easy for sale

Good point, I'm sure that has a lot to do with it. 

@ LS,

I suppose it depends on how you define "mechanical". To me, it means a rigid bet selection process which doesn't deviate or take into account what's happening on the table over multiple data streams. Anything like that is bound to fail. If you have multiple data streams and pay close attention to the relationships between them, you will begin to see that there are indicators which "point" to certain bets. I know this seems like more "empty words", but it's the nature of the strategy that you can't simply give a recipe like: do A, then B after X, Y, Z.

The closest thing to it I've seen on the forum is the Lw method, and other posters like Spike and Gizmotron have alluded to it.

If you're set on using advantage methods, great! hope it all works out for you. I personally believe that the "advantage" in these so-called advantage methods is more psychological than actual. What's the difference between a "real" edge and an illusory one, if you are making a profit? 

[lucky_strike]

in these so-called advantage methods is more psychological than actual

Tangram thanks for a nice reply and I understand what you are getting at.
But you are wrong or just don't have the knowledge regarding a dominant drop point.

Cheers LS

[Tangram]

But you are wrong or just don't have the knowledge regarding a dominant drop point.

I'm no expert on VB, but I know you need some kind of bias to make it work. How easy is it to find the bias that's necessary? maybe in some parts of the world it's not too difficult, but I've tried and found it more trouble than it's worth (and I know how to do the tests to determine real bias).

[lucky_strike]

Well this is going no where when you don't have the knowlede to talk about it.
Sorry don't want to offend you.

Cheers LS

[gizmotron]

I am interested to hear what the attraction is from anyone who has not given up on mechanical systems. 

This thread has left the topic and turned into a bashing of "educated guessing" by a VB advocate. Now that is an example of mechanical thinking right there.

I gave up on mechanical systems because not one of them works at a real casino, given the limits and all. If one ever does it will win a Nobel prize. The media should be notified too. It would be a big deal. The inventor should go on the TV talk show circuit.

[lucky_strike]

I gave up on mechanical systems because not one of them works at a real casino

Educated guess is mechanical.
You can't guess if it is not based upon some thing.

The only way to be non mechanical is to become a blind man ho puts chips on the carpet and don't know where they went.
Every one in this forum is playing a mechanical system or method.

You can't escape from that and argue against it.
It is to put lies all over the place.

LS

[gizmotron]

Educated guess is mechanical.
You can't guess if it is not based upon some thing.

The only way to be non mechanical is to become a blind man ho puts chips on the carpet and don't know where they went.
Every one in this forum is playing a mechanical system or method.

You can't escape from that and argue against it.
It is to put lies all over the place.

LS

Look, perhaps the generalized calling anyone a lier is not personal, but getting the definition of mechanical wrong, in this case, is too wide in scope. One might say all of patterns recognition and clustering analysis is mechanical. All situational awareness is mechanical. In fact that must include card counting in Black Jack too. Card counters know when the mechanical properties of card counting works and when it does not. They are apt to react to a difficult session because of that. That ability to react at some point can be argued that it is not in the classification of mechanical.

I could write a computer sim that beats roulette, based on my principles of educated guessing. It would be mechanical. I would be widely known for it. It would be so well known that I would not be able to use the method anymore.

So now mechanical applies to educated guessing. So it must be a worse than before reality. I consider it a mistake to include it. It's like saying 100 years ago at Kitty Hawk, NC was the beginning of space travel.

[lucky_strike]

I made my point that is all for me.
You can have any opinion about any-thing and think it is correct or wrong.

I can prove my point you can't.
You can not show that a decision does not follow a rule based upon some-thing.
Then it becomes random.

But i am all ears and could change my mind.
But then it has to be some-thing else then empty words.

LS

[gizmotron]

The only way I'm going to reveal my method is if that's possible with my dieing last words. In fact, I'm going to do just that. I'll write it all down and have it released after I die. It will end just about all the table games. It's so simple anyone can learn it in just a few days. It will have a long term effect on everything but Poker. People will become aware. They will teach it in elementary schools.

So you will have to live with the fact that you can prove your point of view and I won't. It's not an issue of can't. One thing though. I get to be the one that drops the bomb on all your dreams. I mean all you people that haven't arrived yet. When it's too late it will be too late. I owe it to myself to wreck the train. I'll do it because you can't take it with you. I'll do it because I want the respect thirty years of searching is owed to me. It's my Mt Everest. I want the first accent claim. It's completely human to go out and get it too. 

The first person that gets it is Victor. I just love the idea that in his hands will be the hot potato. I will give him one year to make his millions and then it will go out to the whole world on the internet as a free book. It will bring fame to him too. This website will be a study in belief systems and internet life experiences.

No matter what is believed to be the truth, the bomb will be dropped. I owe that much to myself.

[lucky_strike]

Yes as you all can see there is claims no more or less.
I would only repeat what i already wrote so it ends for me here.

LS

[Proofreaders2000]

Mechanical systems IMO are easy to remember.  You can write it down on paper or publish it in a book.  But it is the gut instinct I believe that keeps you from losing lots of money in the long run (If you notice soon enough the mechanical way isn't working).

[Proofreaders2000]

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