Various Progressions -part II:

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Transcription:

Martingale

One of the first betting systems most people learn,
it's intuitively appealing, easy to use, and can
cause many very quick wins. Here's how it works:

Start off with a basic wager amount. Let's say $5,
to start. If you lose, place a $10 bet on the next
round. If you lose again place a $20 bet. Lose again,
$40, and so on and so on. You double up every single
time until you finally win, and then start off again
at $5. Let's assume we happened to win the $40 hand.
In the previous hands, we lost $35 ($5 + $10 + $20)
dollars, on the $40 hand we won. Our total winnings
are $40 - $35 = $5. It turns out that no matter how
many times you double, as long as you can keep on
doubling, you will eventually win and get your
starting wager amount back.

Pros

Very high chance of winning your basic betting
amount ($5 in the example above)
Easy and simple to use

Cons

Complications arise for games like blackjack, where
you may need to double or split.
Casinos have betting limits that prevent you from
doubling indefinitely. Depends on the table, this
limit can be $100, $200, $500 or even $10,000. But
eventually you will reach that limit. When you do,
you could find yourself losing a lot of money.

Overall

Before you decide to use this sytem, consider the
following very carefully. On an American roulette
wheel, by betting on a single color, you have about
a 47% chance of winning and 53% chance of losing. If
you start your bet at $5, and the table has a maximum
of $500, that leaves you with roughly a 1 in 100 chance
of losing $635, with no further opportunities to double
up. Given that at most online casinos, you can easily
play 200 or more rounds of roulette in an hour, this
method becomes a big loser. Avoid it at all costs.

Grand Martingale

Like the Martingale above, except that after each bet
you not only double your principal amount of money, but
you add a base unit (original bet amount) to it each and
every time. Considering that the Martingale is such a loser,
this method, which requires even more money, can only be
considered worse. Avoid it.

Mini Grand Martingale

Like the Martingale above, except that after each bet
you not only double your principal amount of money, but
you add $1 to it each and every time. Considering that
the Martingale is such a loser, this method, which requires
even more money, can only be considered worse. Avoid it.

Reverse Martingale or Parlay

Similar to the Martingale, but everything is reversed.
Start with some basic amount (let's say $5), and then
double up after each win, up to some fixed amount. If
you lose, start all over again at your basic amount.

Pros

Each progression through the betting sequence will limit
your loss to your initial bet. So every time you complete
a "sequence" of bets, you will only lose your initial amount
or win a very large amount. As easy and simple to use as
the Martingale

Cons

It can be difficult to have enough wins in a row to make
any money through this method, and by the time you do have
enough wins to get ahead, you may have already lost more
than you win.

Overall

This is reasonably safe betting system. It doesn't carry
the same level of stress that the Martingale carries, and
if you stick to the system, since each sequence of bets only
costs you $5 initially, you can get a lot of satisfaction
out of it.

Labouchere

One of the more complicated and insidious betting systems.
In this system you pick a series of numbers. For example,
1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8. When placing your bet, select the first
and last number in the series and add them together. In
this series you would chose 1 and 8, for a total of 9.
You then place a $9 bet. If you win, you cross out the
1 and 8. The system becomes 2-3-4-5-6-7. On the other hand,
if you lose youcross out the 1 and add the 9 to the back
of the system. It then becomes 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9. Repeat
the betting process for the new system. If you manage to
cross out all of the numbers, start at the very beginning
with a new sequence of numbers.

Once again, this sytem is intuitively appealing. In order
to end up ahead, you need to win half as many times as you
lose. Given that on a standard roulette wheel you have around
a 47:53 win:lose ratio, it becomes relatively easy to complete
the sequence of numbers. However, a sequence can sometimes
spiral out of control and you could end up losing a large
amount of money.

Pros

Each progression through the betting sequence ends up with
a decent chance of ending up ahead, meaning that you'll win
more often than you lose

Cons

A relatively complicated system, you may need some practice
with it before making use of it at a casino. Like the Martingale,
the potential for loss is very high--probably the highest out
of all betting systems mentioned here.

Overall

The potential for loss using the Labouchere is high. As was
mentioned above, it can become very easy for a betting sequence
to spiral out of control causing you to bet more than you're
prepared to bet.

Other Systems

D'Alembert

Start with an initial bet. Every time you lose, increase your
bet by that initial amount. Every time you win, lower it by
that intial amount.

This is a progression system which tries to win back your
losses in small steps instead of all at once like the Martingale.
It was designed for use on the even chance bets on a roulette
table but can be used on any even chance bets.

Concept

d'Alembert works under the assumption that over a period of
time there will be an equal number of 'reds' and 'blacks'.
We start the session by placing one unit ($1, $5 or any other
value) on one of the even chance bets (e.g. 'red'), after a
losing spin we increase the next bet by one unit and after a
winning bet we decrease the next bet by one unit. So if we
were betting on 'red' and the spins were - black, black, black,
red, black, red, red, black, red, red, red - then the bets
placed would be as follows (the numbers in brackets show the
level of your bankroll after the spin):

1 (-1), 2 (-3), 3 (-6), 4 (-2), 3 (-5), 4 (-1), 3 (+2),
2 (+0), 3 (+3), 2 (+5), 1 (+6)

This sequence would end with a win of $6. As you can see,
as soon as the number of 'reds' is equal to the number of
'blacks' plus one then the sequence ends with a win. You may
also notice that after the 7th, 9th and 10th spins we were
also showing a profit, this is because the bets placed on
winning spins are one unit greater than the previous losing
spin. Having the possibility of a positive bankroll before
the sequence is complete allows us to choose to cut the session
short and take a smaller win rather than risking the chance
of the session ending badly.

The Catch

Although the d'Alembert reduces the chances of a complete
wipe-out of your bankroll when compared to the Martingale, the
possibility is still there. A long sequence of consecutive
losses or a period of time where 'black' occurs more often than
'red' will soon put the system in a position where it becomes
almost impossible to recover. As always the house edge works
on every spin, and so increasing your bets will eventually
increase your losses.

Blackjack Variation

d'Alembert can be adapted for use on blackjack by following
a couple of simple rules.
When you have a stand off the next bet remains the same.

If you lose a double or split you must step up your bet by one
unit for every stake lost e.g. if your current bet is 5 units
and you double the hand and lose then your next bet would be 7.

If you win a double or split you must step down your bet by
one unit for every stake won e.g. if you had won the hand in
the previous example then your next bet would be 3 units.

If you get 'blackjack' then you can either count this as a
bonus and step down your next bet by one unit as usual or you
can step down your next bet by two units. note. stepping down
by 2 units may sometimes end a session with a slight loss, but
it gives a greater chance of completing a session.

Using d'Alembert with blackjack usually gives more chances to
cut a session short and collect a small win because off the extra
winnings gained when doubling and splitting. Of course you must
use the correct basic strategy or this type of progression will
become very costly.

Conclusion

d'Alembert gives you two bonuses over the Martingale, firstly
you do not increase your bets as rapidly which gives you the
chance to stop a session and accept a small to medium loss.
Secondly, you can find that your bankroll is positive before
a session is complete, this give you the option to cut short
a session with a small win. The downside is that a session can
last for many spins, so you should always give yourself time
to run through a full session. The main problem is that which
is related to all progressive systems - you will win little and
often but when you lose it will probably wipe out all previous
winnings and eat into your main bankroll.

As with all progressive systems you must be very careful when
you use them, the d'Alembert is not as dangerous as the Martingale
but it can still be the cause of very large losses.


Up and Down

Like the D'Alambert, only reversed. Every time you win, increase
your bet by your initial amount. Every time you lose, lower it
by the same amount.

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Dahl's Progression

Place your bets according to the following sequence:
5-5-7-7-10-10-15-15-25-25-35-35-50. Once you reach the top
of the sequence, continue to bet 50. If you should happen
to lose at any point, restart the sequence. (quit and revert
any time you are even or when ahead by a comfortable
margin - personal choice)

2 in 5

Place your bets according to the following sequence:
5-7-12-15-25.
As soon as you win two bets in the series, or if you should
happen to lose at 25, restart the series.

31

Place your bets using the following sequence: 1-1-1-4-8-16.
Progress to the next number in the series if you lose. If
you should win, however, double  (parlay) this amount and
bet again. If you should win again, restart the series. If
you should lose, move up to the next number in the progression.
Once you lose at 16, start the sequence over.

Fibonacci

Similar to the D'alembert, except instead of doubling or
halving your bet each time, move up and down based on the
following sequence: 1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55-89-144-...
Like the D'alembert, should you lose, move to the next number
in the series. Should win you, fall back one number (or stay
at that number then revert to base bet).

EXAMPLE: a progression of 4 losses and two wins (LLLLWW) leaves
us at -1 -1 -2 -3 +5 +3 = +1, where we have lost twice as many
bets as we have won, but still pocketed 1 unit, simply because
we have won two bets in a row.

In a similar series where we do not win two in a row, but only
2 of 3 (LLLLWLW) we again restart the series, but this time out
profit picture will be -1 -1 -2 -3 +5 -3 +5 = 0, where our 2 of
3 wins has neutralized the progression, and we start again at
1 unit.

And suppose we decided to play a 12-step Fibonacci, with our
top bet being 144 units. Our total risk, which is the complete
and utter loss of an entire series, is 376 units,
or 1 +1 +2 +3 +5 +8 +13 +21 +34 +55 +89 +144 = 376. We can lose
eleven bets in a row, (LLLLLLLLLLLWLW), lose a total of 232 units
in a row, then win 144, lose 89, win 144 for a total loss of 33
units, less than 10% of our session money.

The odds against losing 11 bets in a row are the same as winning
11 bets in a row, 2047 to 1. And the odds against losing our whole
series of 12 bets are 4095 to 1. You could use this system 365 days
a year and expect 11 losses in a row every 5 ½ years, and a loss
of a total series once every 11 years The problem with the Fibonacci
is not safety, therefore, but the fact that approximately half of
your wins will come at the very first level of 1 unit, making it a
boring albeit profitable grind. In order to counteract this situation,
some gamblers will begin their progression at the 4th or 5th level,
and alternately move up or down as they win or lose, depending on their
temperament and goals.

EXAMPLE: We begin with 5 units and win. We then move up the
progression and win 8 units. We have won a total of 13 units and
completed our Fibonacci objective of two wins in a row. Now we
reduce our bet to 3 units, locking in a profit of 10 units if we
lose it. But if we win that 3 units bet, our next is 5 units. The
variations are practically limitless, and the safety level is very
high. The Fibonacci is a great system for the recreational gambler,
the grind player who wants a few enjoyable hours gambling without
jeopardizing his mortgage, and the pro who wants to ease into his
game before he gets serious.

To use the Fibonacci properly, a player must first memorize the
progression, and then practice at home flipping a coin, until
the bets are made automatically. It is a perfect system for all
the even-chance games like Craps, Baccarat and Roulette, and can
be easily modified into a money-management system for Blackjack
and sports betting. It is also acknowledged as an excellent system
for partners betting opposite each other. However you decide to
employ this versatile progression, you will find fewer more powerful
ways to win with as little risk.


O'Hare Straddle

Take out a very large short-term loan from any source that's
available. Use all of it on a single wager save for enough
to purchase a ticket to South America. If you win, pay back
your debt and enjoy. If you lose, quickly flee the country
with the money you saved for your plane ticket.

1-3-2-6

A very simple, straightforward betting system. Place bets
based on the following progression: 1-3-2-6. If you should
happen to lose, start over again at 1.

Paroli

Very similar to a reverse of the "Super Martingale". Reinvest
your winnings plus add your original bet to the amount. For
example, bet $5. If you win, bet $10+$5 = $15. If you should
win again bet $30 + $5 = $35. If you should win yet again bet
$70 + $5 = $75.

Regression System

This system is designed for use on even chance bets.

Concept

The idea behind the regression system is that every session
starts with a wining bet and then builds on this foundation.
You start by placing a 2 unit bet and if this wins you then
reduce your next bet to 1 unit. By doing this your bankroll
after the first winning bet will have increased by one unit
whether or not you win the next bet. After your initial win
you then increase the bet after every win by one unit, this
means that you will not take a profit on the second win but
after a number of consecutive wins you will start to rake in large amounts.

To compare how this system works against a series of flat
bets I have set up a table that shows how your bankroll would
fare if playing with $5 units

       Winning Sequence       Regression    Flat Bet

                  L             -$10            -$10
             W,L              +$5             +$0
          W,W,L              +$5             +$10
         W,W,W,L              +$10             +$20
       W,W,W,W,L              +$20             +$30
        W,W,W,W,W,L             +$35            +$40
     W,W,W,W,W,W,L             +$55             +$50
      W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L            +$80            +$60
     W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L       +$110            +$70
    W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L       +$145             +$80
  W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L      +$185            +$90


From this table we can see that the regression system needs to
get a series of at least six consecutive wins in order to show a
larger profit than flat betting. Sessions between two and five
wins show a smaller profit, but the big advantage of this system
is that you can ride out a losing streak (or even show a small
profit if the streak is not too severe), and still make a killing
when the luck turns your way.

The Catch

There isn't much of a catch to this system. You are trading
off medium run wins for wins of one run and wins of 6+ runs.
Remember that the house edge will be working on all bets and
not just your initial bet, and that when your bets get very
large you are playing with your money and NOT the casinos.

Blackjack

This system can be used effectively on blackjack, but remember
that you may need extra money to double or split the cards. If
the casino you are playing at allows multiple splits with doubles
then a very promising win can turn bad very quickly. Always use
the correct basic blackjack strategy but if the stakes are getting
too high then it may be wise not to split or double. You may even
decide to take insurance if the bet is very large (something you
should not normally do) and it's the difference between a losing
day and a winning day. (note. Over the long run you will be better
sticking to basic blackjack strategy).

Conclusion

This system can be very effective if you have the patience to
wait for the long runs. You can have some great pay off's and
still be picking up small bets through the bad times to keep
your bankroll topped up. It's very nice when you start out on
a series of bets knowing that your bankroll has increased, but
equally unpleasant when you see a $100 bet lose. Although it
will not alter the long term edge the casino has, this system
can be very useful - Learn it!

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