Gambler's Fallacy vs Even Distribution

[Kelly]

@gizmo.

Whatever. There will always be an excuse.

@cool

If 20 blacks has just shown,  you cant really know wether black still has to hit another 30 times just to break even in the big picture.  In that case you would  still be expecting black instead of red, even though black has just come out 20 times.  The last 20 spins on your paper is just that, just paper.

[col1879]

****************you never really know when a winning trend is as this can turn into a bad trend anytime and vice vera**************

If it is a winning trend then keep betting, if it's a losing one jump off

*****************If 20 blacks has just shown,  you cant really know wether black still has to hit another 30 times just to break even in the big picture.  In that case you would  still be expecting black instead of red, even though black has just come out 20 times.  The last 20 spins on your paper is just that, just paper.*****************

Yes, but there is a 25% chance it will switch to R and a much, much, much lower percentage it will repeat B

[Kelly]

Yes, but there is a 25% chance it will switch to R and a much, much, much lower percentage it will repeat B

WHAT ? Feel free to post how you get to that conclusion.

[darrynf]

I'm not one to care about what gizmo says as he has no evidence of anything suporting him, who ever said to get of a lossing trend when iy happens, well i dont quite agree cause that losing trend can turn into a winning trend at anytime (and vice versa).

I dont know what gizmo dose (maybe he has a good strategy and maybe not) but if you go off past spins in a short outcome then most of the times it will even it self out, meaning you never see big losses or big wins.

sometimes the pattern will be dominant and it dosnt change for at least 20 or so spins, of cause there are other factors in play (im not saying i win all the time, the last session i played with my strategy is that i lost, but it wasnt due to my strategy).

anyway im sure people play differently and have many different method, eitherway you cant predict exactly what will happen but from my testing it says that on a short game the trends dont very to often.

just my opinion, dosent mean im right, just means what i have seen with my strategy. I havent had any money to play it for awhile so its still new and i dont bother testing it out anymore as it already showed good results.

[col1879]

25% of all patterns are Singles. 0.00000000000000something% of all patterns are 20+ repeaters. Patterns as in the Big Picture - Not Infinity

[darrynf]

i dont really agree with you cole (not that percentage or im reading you post wrong).

they say red and black have a 48% chance of a hit, on the first spin yes.

now say you had had 20 blacks, what i think is true is that the longer a coulor runs without changing then the percentage gets higher for the colour to change.
so it starts off 48% and say black hits again, so what dose that change the percentage to 1% or 0.1%, eitherway the percentage hasent change enough to be in your favor, so after 10 blacks, maybe the percentage is 49% (0.1%) or 58% (1%). who knows how high it is.
if it was 0.1% and 20 blacks hit then it would be 50% to red for the next colour to show(now its still pretty even but this is more of an example).
the higher the same colour hits the higher the percentage for the oppersit colour to hit, anyway thats what i believe.

[darrynf]

25% of all patterns are Singles. 0.00000000000000something% of all patterns are 20+ repeaters. Patterns as in the Big Picture - Not Infinity

I really dont understand how you get that. in my opinion repeaters happen just as much as single numbers.

if it were balck and red then the singles would be 48%, the dozens and columns are 33% (something like that).
im only talking about singles so i dont understand what you are saying cole.

if you are saying 25% of patterns are singles then thats saying 75% of patterns are repeaters, if that was true then we would all be winning but i think its more 50% eachway.

[col1879]

I am saying that if you do 100 spins and study the patterns that 25% will be BRB or RBR. Over a larger sample, say 1000spins, you are much more likely to see a BRRRRRRRRRRRB or a RBBBBBBBBBBBR. More likely, not guaranteed.

Getting back to the BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB then B or R? 25% to R and smaller percentage for B although you would be -20, flat betting, before you placed the flat bet. I am not saying you will be in profit by betting for R on Bet 21, all I am saying is a switch to R is more likely based on the size of sample of spins, but not guaranteed. If that makes any sense!

[MauiSunset]

I dont really agree with you cole (not that percentage or im reading you post wrong).

they say red and black have a 48% chance of a hit, on the first spin yes.

now say you had had 20 blacks, what I think is true is that the longer a coulor runs without changing then the percentage gets higher for the colour to change.
so it starts off 48% and say black hits again, so what dose that change the percentage to 1% or 0.1%, eitherway the percentage hasent change enough to be in your favor, so after 10 blacks, maybe the percentage is 49% (0.1%) or 58% (1%). who knows how high it is.
if it was 0.1% and 20 blacks hit then it would be 50% to red for the next colour to show(now its still pretty even but this is more of an example).
the higher the same colour hits the higher the percentage for the oppersit colour to hit, anyway thats what I believe.

This is not backed up by any math anywhere - it's the Gamblers' Fallacy - you want the next spin to not be 48.6% Red or 48.6% Black; you want something that doesn't exist.

Well, it exists in a lot of Roulette systems for sale, never the free ones...........

[Kelly]

col, you mix it up.  Im running out of time but read this;

nolinks://nolinks.win-maxx.com/basics/basics06.html

nolinks://nolinks.win-maxx.com/basics/basics08.html

nolinks://nolinks.win-maxx.com/basics/basics11.html

nolinks://nolinks.win-maxx.com/basics/basics13.html

Pay attention to  the last link.  Im pretty sure that it wouldnt matter if I gave the explanation in my own words, these things has come up for as long as I can remember.  

The chances for the outcome in spin 21 is 50/50. Its the lenght of the streak that makes the probability smaller.  It has nothing to do with the appearences in the streak. It could be  all singles BRBRBRBR..... the probability is still the same at spin 21 as if 20 blacks came out.

The part you misunderstand is in link 1

[MauiSunset]

I am saying that if you do 100 spins and study the patterns that 25% will be BRB or RBR. Over a larger sample, say 1000spins, you are much more likely to see a BRRRRRRRRRRRB or a RBBBBBBBBBBBR. More likely, not guaranteed.

Getting back to the BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB then B or R? 25% to R and smaller percentage for B although you would be -20, flat betting, before you placed the flat bet. I am not saying you will be in profit by betting for R on Bet 21, all I am saying is a switch to R is more likely based on the size of sample of spins, but not guaranteed. If that makes any sense!

The closest "system" I've found, and one I use all the time, is to bet 1 chip on Black and 1 chip on Red (alternating) and get as many free drinks as I can guzzle down in one hour.

I don't know of a more profitable Roulette system in existence....

[col1879]

Give twenty individual people a sample of 10 spins. I bet 10 of them (50%) don't have twenty blacks in a row in their sample (on average, not infinity)

[darrynf]

@maui,

I know its not back up, that was just an example.

Its what i believe (more so for RNG), you could say its not true (its no different to flicking a coin).

anyway i never bet on colours, the problem is you dont know what percentage it should be, its all guess work.

its also possible for the same colour to continue for 100 or more spins (as far as i know it dosent happen but its possible).
I believe the longer one colour stays the sooner it will change due to percentages but like i said i never bet colours

[Kelly]

I asume you mean 20 spins each.

Why is

BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB

less likely than

BBBBBRRRRRBBBBBRRRRR

or

BRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBRBR

if you test a large spin sample you will roughly find the same amount of these 3 constellations embedded. if you dont believe me, test it out. Gotta go.

[col1879]

***********The part you misunderstand is in link 1********************

Ok thanks for the link, I'll check it out (don't worry, I never gamble with real money lol)

[col1879]

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