If a dozen will sleep 11 times and we will win the 12th(I mean it will wake up in the 12th) what is the maths probability of this?
it is suposed that every time that 1 dozen or colour is sleeping,in the next spin the probability to hit it is becoming bigger.
So my question is if a dozen will wake up in the 12th spin what is the probability?
THANK YOU.
ps .I know that Roulette is pure random and this is not a winning quesion...but I just want to know the maths of it. :)
(25/37)11 ✕ (12/37) = 0.00435 :thumbsup:
Can we make it in %???
I mean the 12th time that we are betting on a 11 times sleeping dozen...what is the probability % to come ?
Quote from: Jean-Claud on June 17, 2010, 08:27:15 AM
it is suposed that every time that 1 dozen or colour is sleeping,in the next spin the probability to hit it is becoming bigger.
.............. you need to go back to school, the probability never changes. I personally saw one column not hit 15 times in a row. can happen any time (unfortunately I was betting on it to hit. maybe I just have extremely bad luck, since everyone else around here claims to win.)
The first system I ever used was ofcourse martingle with red and black. But the second one was playing that a dozen doesn't sleep more than 19 times.
I waited for a dozen to sleep 7 times then I started betting with a 12 step progression. I played it for 2 weeks I think and then came to a loss. I thought I would become a billionare, was already thinking of which car I should by, Porsche or Lamborghini =D
I aimed for 30$ day and it took about 30 minutes every day. Was up to 500$ (should had stopped here) and then the session of hell came. Lost all of it and learned me a big lession. Everybody has to begin somewhere and learn.
Since that havn't I found a winning system or strategi..
yeah I hate it when that happens... (death of a dream)
if you read again i already told you that roulette can not be beatten with this.
I just wanted to know the maths of it.
imagine if it was a system.what would you do?draw a gun and shoot?
Quote from: Jean-Claud on June 17, 2010, 11:08:07 AM
if you read again I already told you that roulette can not be beatten with this.
I just wanted to know the maths of it.
imagine if it was a system.what would you do?draw a gun and shoot?
............. I don't even know what that means. shoot the dealer and take the money? yeah that's not a bad system but one that would probably fail pretty abruptly. I was just pointing out to you that when you think the probability of something occuring increases more and more each time it doesn't happen-- in a game of replacement which is what roulette is-- shows that you have a rather large misunderstanding about roulette and probability.
Quote from: Jean-Claud on June 17, 2010, 11:08:07 AM
if you read again I already told you that roulette can not be beatten with this.
I just wanted to know the maths of it.
imagine if it was a system.what would you do?draw a gun and shoot?
It's a very simple thing to figure out. Sometimes it will continue and sometimes it won't. There are no odds that can tell you when randomness is going to work in your favor and when it won't. That's why the odds don't matter. It's also why the odds don't matter to every other application that attempts to predict when certain things will happen. It's random that will happen. You can't know when it will strongly favor your interests. It also explains why math can't tell you when things will favor you too. Funny how that works. Math somehow gets used around here to explain why random outcomes can't work for you all the time. Because they always lean back on that phase of it called long term. Still, the "termers" like to always tell you when long term must hit your play. What's really funny is they all admit that it hit them very early in their attempts to play at reading randomness. If you care to look up their comments you will see that they all had bad experiences and gave up on it very early in their experiences. Now is that a coincidence or a pattern?
Quote from: Jean-Claud on June 17, 2010, 09:50:53 AM
Can we make it in %???
I mean the 12th time that we are betting on a 11 times sleeping dozen...what is the probability % to come ?
As a % it's 0.435%
This is the chance that you will get a dozen sleeping for 11 spins and then hitting on the 12th spin - this is the
sequential probability. If you're asking what the probability is that a dozen will hit,
having slept for 11 spins, that is 12/37.
I have already TOLD U that this probability question is not about making a system , but is just a math question...
U are all continue to sing the sameeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee thing...
and u want to beat roulette ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Roulette can not be beaten with maths or probability!!!!!!
This is something that allllllllllllllllllll the expirienced players know it!!!!!!
there u go are u happy now that i told U that I know it also????
LOL
it was the 3d time that I told u that...
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 17, 2010, 11:34:13 AM
It's a very simple thing to figure out. Sometimes it will continue and sometimes it won't. There are no odds that can tell you when randomness is going to work in your favor and when it won't. That's why the odds don't matter. It's also why the odds don't matter to every other application that attempts to predict when certain things will happen. It's random that will happen. You can't know when it will strongly favor your interests. It also explains why math can't tell you when things will favor you too.
You can't have it both ways.
Something has to tell you when the odds are in your favour otherwise you would lose at the predicted rate. Since you claim that you don't then there must be some indicator which can be taken account of, and this will change the odds - yes?
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 17, 2010, 11:34:13 AM
There are no odds that can tell you when randomness is going to work in your favor and when it won't. That's why the odds don't matter.
Also, Gizmotron (aka Chuck Norris, aka God) once counted to infinity twice.
Logic doesn't apply to him, he applies to it.
Quote from: Bayes on June 17, 2010, 11:50:34 AM
You can't have it both ways. Something has to tell you when the odds are in your favour otherwise you would lose at the predicted rate. Since you claim that you don't then there must be some indicator which can be taken account of, and this will change the odds - yes?
Bayes, you don't understand. ;D Here's the truth: nolinks://vlsroulette.com/testing-zone/skeeping-dozen-concept-make-your-guess-for-how-long/msg112521/#msg112521 (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/testing-zone/skeeping-dozen-concept-make-your-guess-for-how-long/msg112521/#msg112521)
Quote from: Noble Savage on June 17, 2010, 12:24:59 PM
Bayes, you don't understand.
I know. It's very frustrating. :-\ :sarcastic:
@ Gizmo,
Basically you're saying that spins are not independent. Do you agree?
Yes or No
Still, the "termers" like to always tell you when long term must hit your play.>>
People like Ken baffle them. According to the termers, Ken should have been sucked down the math hole years ago. But with a changing and crafty bet selection and a big BR and huge progression, he's still going strong. So they don't mention him or discuss him, he's too much of a pesky problem for their righteous world view.. They know he'll get whats coming to him, they just don't know if it'll be tomorrow, or in 2028. Or in their lifetimes. The math of gambling being such an exact science and all.. :lol:
Quote from: Bayes on June 17, 2010, 11:50:34 AM
You can't have it both ways. Something has to tell you when the odds are in your favour otherwise you would lose at the predicted rate. Since you claim that you don't then there must be some indicator which can be taken account of, and this will change the odds - yes?
It never changes the odds. It can semantically appear to have changed something. But the truth is that taking advantage of favorable times has to do with preparedness. You can wait out spins or end sessions, while flat betting, or you can have a two level attack method that uses minimum table bets and higher attacking bets. You can search for tables that are producing favorable moments. I fail to reach a conclusion that if you don't have a trigger you must lose at the "predicted rate." I would believe that I must lose at a random rate at worst. It's ridiculous to give so much power to this predicted rate stuff. It just does not work that way in real play. I'm prepared to attack favorable moments and to end all downturns before they do their full damage. It's so basic that it shouldn't be made into a magical indicator.
It's ridiculous to give so much power to this predicted rate stuff. It just does not work that way in real play.>>
The truth is, you can short circuit the long term math in extreme short term play very easily, if you learn to pay attention to whats happening spin to spin.
Quote from: Noble Savage on June 17, 2010, 12:24:59 PM
Bayes, you don't understand. ;D Here's the truth: nolinks://vlsroulette.com/testing-zone/skeeping-dozen-concept-make-your-guess-for-how-long/msg112521/#msg112521 (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/testing-zone/skeeping-dozen-concept-make-your-guess-for-how-long/msg112521/#msg112521)
Now this pathetic troll Noble Savage is fishing for attention by soliciting it. This self appointed internet pest does not contribute to discussion and should be run off this forum for attempting to start trouble. Please consider banning Noble Savage.
Quote from: Bayes on June 17, 2010, 12:32:29 PM
@ Gizmo,
Basically you're saying that spins are not independent. Do you agree?
Yes or No
They are mechanically completely independent. They are also part of the current state of statistical variance from a standpoint that it takes multiple spin results to get statistics for the most recent condition of variance. In that same way a sleeping dozen that lasted for 30 spins was confirming its continuing condition at spin 15 of that same set of past spins. When looking at groups of spins that are part past and part the future, the next spin, it's completely understandable that the noticeable trait that matters is that the combined spins are sequentially part of the whole grouping. So the answer is relative to groups of spins or a single spin. Again, the odds don't matter. The condition matters.
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 17, 2010, 01:07:08 PM
This self appointed internet pest does not contribute to discussion
What discussion? You basically know it all. You guess randomness and coincidence, step on all logic and science, and anyone who says otherwise is subject to your bashing and ridicule.
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 17, 2010, 01:07:08 PM
should be run off this forum for attempting to start trouble. Please consider banning Noble Savage.
Check our posting history. I'm more verbally polite than you are. I use harmless humor because I don't take you or your ridiculous claims so seriously. You use direct name calling like an infant, then cry "ban him!" when you've had enough.
NS,
Its so boring here lately and if it wasn't for Gizmos and Spikes comments-
like it or not-it would be totaly dead.Spike even make me laugh lately with
his briliant strip comments.I think SH should award these 2 for their contribution
here.Just my thoughts. :pleasantry: :clapping:
Isn t it strainge the Spike and Gizmotron NEVER speak to eatch other???(never reply one to the other) :o
Its the Union of the LIERS that meke this fenomeno!
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Lier and lier can not fight!
Quote from: Jean-Claud on June 17, 2010, 03:28:54 PM
Isn t it strainge the Spike and Gizmotron NEVER speak to eatch other???(never reply one to the other) :o
Its the Union of the LIERS that meke this fenomeno!
;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D
Lier and lier can not fight!
haha, indeed.
I sometimes notice when they seem to have different opinions about something, they just deliberately ignore it so that they never disagree with each other. :sarcastic:
Quote from: medo on June 17, 2010, 03:28:41 PM
NS,
Its so boring here lately and if it wasn't for Gizmos and Spikes comments-
like it or not-it would be totaly dead.
I know. I'm making the most out of them.
Gizmotron gets angry and rants, Spike seems to be rather cooler though.
And I will say it again---think they are same person---they travel
together from forum to other forum like gemini and one shouldn't
take them/him/seriously.
Gizmo,
Some of your critics never spent a single minute iat a casino. They don`t even know how a casino looks from the inside.
Nathan Detroit.
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!
Quote from: Nathan Detroit on June 17, 2010, 04:34:08 PM
Some of your critics never spent a single minute iat a casino. They don`t even know how a casino looks from the inside.
And how do you know that? You read random too and can guess/predict things you don't see? ;D
How do we know that?
Deduction my dear Watson . ( quote by S.H.)
Nathan Detroit
HAPY WINNINGS!!!
the odds don't matter. The condition matters.>>>
Long term odds and immediate conditional odds. Guess which one you can win with..
Quote from: Spike! on June 17, 2010, 04:49:39 PM
Long term odds and immediate conditional odds. Guess which one you can win with..
On the wheel, you play on, on any given spin, does the ball have an equal chance of falling into any of the pockets?
does the ball have an equal chance of falling into any of the pockets?>>
All except the ones I crammed with putty and ghewing gum..
Quote from: Spike! on June 18, 2010, 09:46:40 PM
does the ball have an equal chance of falling into any of the pockets?>>
All except the ones I crammed with putty and ghewing gum..
HA!!, that's it, right? The whole hoax exposed. You are great, spike. :wub:
Sometimes I, personally, just empty the dust outta the bottom of my trouser pockets....that usually is enough to sway the EC's into my favour by 24%. Though, I do LOVE putty. I might try that one. Man, I was about to stick on donnie brasco.....I'd rather keep this going.
does the ball have an equal chance of falling into any of the pockets?Yes, I think so. Clearly sticking putty into pockets is not a viable strategy. Let's not get into a debate about pockets...could get ugly. And, besides, I don't really want to know where you like to stick your "putty". I saw that picture of Noble Savage....
does the ball have an equal chance of falling into any of the pockets?>>
The fact that the wheel is fair is why it can be beaten. Thats a fact, not a contradiction..
Simple yes or no answer...maybe?? Either it does or it doesn't. We're talking about a game of physical boundaries.
If it does, the maths is solid and can't be superseded, ever. If not, literally, it's because you put chuddy in 10 pockets on each spin and got away with not being seen- and that's the only method by which you could ever hope to have a consistent .72 proba of winning on even money.
If it does, the maths is solid and can't be superseded, ever. >>>
Unless you get the edge, then all the maths apply to you and not the casino.