The reason using past spins works is called Conditional Probability (look it up), which is:
"The probability of A occurring, given that B has occurred."
"Conditional probability is the probability of some event A, given the occurrence of some other event B."
Done correctly, it gives you huge a advantage. Its not supposed to work on independent outcomes, so what you need to do is pretend the outcomes are not independent and go from there. The key word is 'pretend'.
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It's called combinations and connections. I'm now convinced that groupings the size of 3, 4, or 5 numbers per group, making up ten total groups to cover the entire wheel, leads an intelligent observer to finding more frequent elegant patterns.
Having seen the mentality of the debating society I thought it was a good idea to leave you all in the dust. I just laid an incredible simple truth in your laps and you won't know what to do with it. Most of you will react to it badly. The way you always do. This kind of thinking is the conversation level that should be happening but it never will. I play a brilliant strategy of grinding until the wheel makes a victim of itself. All because of combinations and connections. The math oriented bozos would have you believe that nothing can connect and there are never combinations. They are freaks of nature stuck in a magical belief system of rigid confined isolationism. The problem here is they want everyone to march like jack booted automatons, to their dull and monotonous rhythm.
Gizmo, I have success breaking the wheel down into quads, 4 nine number sections. Have tried smaller groupings, but seem to fare better with the larger size. I'm not sure what you mean by elegant patterns, but using past spins to help determine your next bet selection is the only way I know how to win.
I play a brilliant strategy of grinding until the wheel makes a victim of itself.>>>
Very fitting, 'victim of itself'. Indeed..
>>The math oriented bozos would have you believe that nothing can connect and there are never combinations.>>
When just the opposite is true, if you learn to look at it properly.
Quote from: Slade on July 07, 2010, 02:21:04 AM
Gizmo, I have success breaking the wheel down into quads, 4 nine number sections. Have tried smaller groupings, but seem to fare better with the larger size. I'm not sure what you mean by elegant patterns, but using past spins to help determine your next bet selection is the only way I know how to win.
An elegant pattern is any sequence that acts like it gives you the exact information needed to act as it does. In that way you know what will happen next and for a short while, say ten to twenty more spins. A really good one will last for thirty spins, and that does happen.
I use ten groups, 1,11,21,31 - 2,12,22,32 - 3,13,23,33 - .... 9,19,29 - 0,00,10,20,30. These groups are based on the last digit in each class being the same. A person can relate to them without much work at all. They can track with the wheel's marquee without much effort at all. Sometimes the randomness characteristic is the same three or four classes hitting for a long streak.
Christiaan Huygens wrote the first book on probability theory. My hero....
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Pretty silly stuff guys, considering roulette is a game of independent trials. :)
Quote from: Herb6 on July 07, 2010, 03:10:17 AM
Pretty silly stuff guys, considering roulette is a game of independent trials. :)
Poor Herbie, you think he'd get tired of running into the walls of the maze he put himself into, like a lab rat. But no, he seems to love it, being eternally perplexed is very calming to some people..
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I'm surprised to hear that you don't group your numbers based on where they lie on the wheel itself. My experience has led me to look for certain sections of the wheel (9 number quadrants) getting hot and staying in that section for sometimes as much as an hour or more. Rapid roulette has been a godsend to me as the dealers seem to get in more of a routine there, as they are spinning close to 60 spins an hour.
I don't see the significance of the numbers you have chosen. So your way of play could include any sets of numbers, yours were just chosen as they were easy to remember. I know this is contrary to what you and Spike think, but I think you would have even better success if you chose your numbers based on wheel location instead of numbers that end in 1, 2 or 3.
Quote from: Slade on July 07, 2010, 03:35:24 AM
I'm surprised to hear that you don't group your numbers based on where they lie on the wheel itself. My experience has led me to look for certain sections of the wheel (9 number quadrants) getting hot and staying in that section for sometimes as much as an hour or more. Rapid roulette has been a godsend to me as the dealers seem to get in more of a routine there, as they are spinning close to 60 spins an hour.
I don't see the significance of the numbers you have chosen. So your way of play could include any sets of numbers, yours were just chosen as they were easy to remember. I know this is contrary to what you and Spike think, but I think you would have even better success if you chose your numbers based on wheel location instead of numbers that end in 1, 2 or 3.
I do watch the disk based sections. I have a set based on the zeros, a set based on 90 degrees away from the zeros, and four spokes in between those larger two sets of two. I just never talk about them. BTW, there is no difference between disk based groups and table based groups. At least on a real wheel that is. Randomness does its thing no matter what or where the grouping comes from. The point is not to have magical beliefs but to have real awareness of current conditions.
Quote from: Gizmotron on July 07, 2010, 02:58:10 AMI use ten groups, 1,11,21,31 - 2,12,22,32 - 3,13,23,33 - .... 9,19,29 - 0,00,10,20,30. These groups are based on the last digit in each class being the same. A person can relate to them without much work at all. They can track with the wheel's marquee without much effort at all. Sometimes the randomness characteristic is the same three or four classes hitting for a long streak.
It just does not give you any advantage. Basically, your theory above is the same as your sleeping dozen concept (a dozen is sleeping for
some time and you bet on the other two) which, of course, does not increase the hit-rate.
VB ----------- guy on the left EG ------------------------guy on the right.............
Quote from: mistarlupo on July 07, 2010, 06:11:37 AM
It just does not give you any advantage. Basically, your theory above is the same as your sleeping dozen concept (a dozen is sleeping for some time and you bet on the other two) which, of course, does not increase the hit-rate.
Yeah? So you know all this because you can't read randomness, you don't believe that elegant patterns occur, and you are convinced that everything is the result of independent events. And people around here are supposed to take you for real. You are trying to give advice while having no clue how things really work. You are just like a liberal / progressive in America that completely believes that government spending drives the economy in a growth pattern. When in fact it has the effect of stifling growth every time it's attempted. For some reason the magical belief in government is an independent trial. Now these people believe in their theory no matter how many times it is attempted. It has failed every time it was attempted. Your problem is that the few of us that can use randomness as a tool have very little to concern ourselves with in your magical beliefs. It won't effect us if you remain clueless.
I'm an open-minded person and know that outcomes created by pseudo-random generator, such as roulette,
can be predicted. I'm also okay with the elegant patterns, I see them (but I can't predict them like you do).
QuoteAnd people around here are supposed to take you for real. You are trying to give advice while having no clue how things really work.
Hm, that's interesting. I thought you were the one trying to convince us take your theories for real. When
I make a statement, such as the one in my previous post, I can back it up with an evidence (and I did). You don't do that, you just talk and no one believes you. That's fine for you, you don't care... But you don't have the right to say I have no clue how things work. Because I can prove you that "
the same three or four classes hitting for a long streak" (nolinks://vlsroulette.com/general-board/conditional-probability/msg114727/#msg114727) does not give you any advantage. And I doubt you'll ever prove me wrong. We knooow, you don't have to, no need to say it.
Quote from: mistarlupo on July 07, 2010, 12:23:18 PM
I'm an open-minded person and know that outcomes created by pseudo-random generator, such as roulette, can be predicted. I'm also okay with the elegant patterns, I see them (but I can't predict them like you do).
I don't predict them. I just remain prepared to attack them when they occur. They do this all by themselves. I wait for them. It only takes one wrong guess to confirm that they are not a perfect pattern. But until that wrong guess happens they are perfectly effective at 100%. It's like having permission to rob a bank.
QuoteHm, that's interesting. I thought you were the one trying to convince us take your theories for real. When I make a statement, such as the one in my previous post, I can back it up with an evidence (and I did). You don't do that, you just talk and no one believes you. That's fine for you, you don't care... But you don't have the right to say I have no clue how things work. Because I can prove you that "the same three or four classes hitting for a long streak" does not give you any advantage. And I doubt you'll ever prove me wrong. We knooow, you don't have to, no need to say it.
I can prove you wrong right now. 10 different classes that make up the 38 numbers on the wheel create different forms of patterns than just three dozens or three columns do. You can get many more combinations and connections that fit together as formations from the 10 classes. And this most of all. You are clueless. You confirm it while you constantly attempt to disprove things with just your opinion. There is no other way to see this. Either I'm right or you are right. Either I'm wrong or you are wrong. I'm the one that goes into a casino and does it. You are just a mouth with an opinion that is clueless.
Quote from: Gizmotron on July 07, 2010, 12:57:25 PMI don't predict them. I just remain prepared to attack them when they occur. They do this all by themselves. I wait for them. It only takes one wrong guess to confirm that they are not a perfect pattern. But until that wrong guess happens they are perfectly effective at 100%. It's like having permission to rob a bank.
Basically, they're effective when they are and they're not effective when they are not, right? You win in the long term, because you bet only the patterns currently effective, don't you? OK, here's a question: Why I don't get more than expected winning bets and you do?
Quote from: Gizmotron on July 07, 2010, 12:57:25 PMI can prove you wrong right now. 10 different classes that make up the 38 numbers on the wheel create different forms of patterns than just three dozens or three columns do. You can get many more combinations and connections that fit together as formations from the 10 classes.
I agree with you on everything except the first sentence. Different classes, combinations and connections produce various forms of patterns. Every single bet/combination on the layout creates different patterns. So what? I just can't see how exactly you prove me wrong. Maybe I missed something? Explain it further for me, please.
Quote from: Gizmotron on July 07, 2010, 12:57:25 PMAnd this most of all. You are clueless. You confirm it while you constantly attempt to disprove things with just your opinion. There is no other way to see this. Either I'm right or you are right. Either I'm wrong or you are wrong. I'm the one that goes into a casino and does it. You are just a mouth with an opinion that is clueless.
I think you are confusing me with someone else. As I said, I'm an open-minded person and that's why I'm on this forum and trying to have conversation with you. I just respond to, in my opinion, not quite accurate statements.
To win, you need to make up parameters that don't exist, and pretend they do. I said a long time ago that I made up a game I play within the existing game of roulette. In that game, conditional probability works on roulette.
Who can say how much intuitive probability has to do with educated guessing. The more I practice, the better I get. Einstein said:
«The only really valuable thing is intuition. There is no logical way to the discovery of these elemental laws. There is only the way of intuition, which is helped by a feeling for the order lying behind the appearance.»
The more familiar you are with what you do, the better your intuition (guessing) becomes. But there's no way to isolate it, so who knows. There is definately an "order lying behind the appearance" in roulette..
Thank you for your constructive input, it's appreciated.
Human intuition is a very interesting topic that I plan to investigate further. What I find a bit confusing is that experience may affect intuition negatively. Intuition performance is very obvious "when someone with limited experience achieves better than expected results". "One would expect experienced players to outperform novices, but we often see the opposite happening" (a.k.a. beginner's luck (nolinks://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beginner's_luck)). "Once the "innocent" psychological mindset is replaced by one that is concerned with the nuances of the game, concentration goes out the window and skill level decreases."
So isn't it better for a novice "guesser" to concentrate on intuition (future outcome/s only) rather than on experience (= past results)?
So isn't it better for a novice "guesser" to concentrate on intuition>>>
Who's better at diagnosing a patient, a novice fresh out of medical school, or a doctor who's been doing it for 30 years? Intuition has nothing to do with mind reading or predicting the future or the occult, its about your brain processing information from experience that you're not aware of. Somebody with practice and experience will always have a better intuition record than somebody who's new at it. Einstein wasn't born with intuition, its something he developed over the years.
Hi
Thank you for a couple of interesting posts.
I have followed your posts for some time spike (not everyone in here thinks you are just out to cause trouble) . . . let the s**t storm begin!
have followed your posts for some time spike>>
Wise move..
When is the challenge Spike?
Still waiting patiently.
In roulette using intuition to place next bets has to do with secuencies and frecuencies of what has been outcoming in last spins. What and How are the very questions to answer. So tracking the place (area, sockets) where the ball lands (secuency) and time (frecuency) are the keys where to find the clues to beat roulette.
Quote from: Jakkalsdraai on July 08, 2010, 04:24:02 AM
When is the challenge Spike?
Still waiting patiently.
Lol, this is a good one. Patience is the mother of science it is said. My intuition taking into account last 1000 posts tells me you'll have to be very very patient wainting to that very very rare event to happen.
Quote from: Carpanta on July 08, 2010, 07:41:26 AM
Lol, this is a good one. Patience is the mother of science it is said. My intuition taking into account last 1000 posts tells me you'll have to be very very patient wainting to that very very rare event to happen.
;D Exactly what I was thinking! I guess it is no "educated guess" that it'll never happen.
Been too busy lately, its summer here.
See you phrase yourself as the snowman melter........whereas you are the one melting mate. Guess it is Summer there. :lol:
Empirical probability estimates probabilities from experience and observation. Empirical means: 'Relying on experience or observation alone without due regard for system and theory.'
Empirical Probability of an event is an estimate (educated guess) that the event will happen based collecting data. It is based specifically on direct observations.
Combined with conditional probability and reading random, and you have the MathNazis squirming like virgins seeing their first porn flick..
Hellooo? Mr Brownell? You did not bother to reply to my last post? Very untypical of you.