Conditional Probability

[mistarlupo]

I don't predict them. I just remain prepared to attack them when they occur. They do this all by themselves. I wait for them. It only takes one wrong guess to confirm that they are not a perfect pattern. But until that wrong guess happens they are perfectly effective at 100%. It's like having permission to rob a bank.

Basically, they're effective when they are and they're not effective when they are not, right? You win in the long term, because you bet only the patterns currently effective, don't you? OK, here's a question: Why I don't get more than expected winning bets and you do?

I can prove you wrong right now. 10 different classes that make up the 38 numbers on the wheel create different forms of patterns than just three dozens or three columns do. You can get many more combinations and connections that fit together as formations from the 10 classes.

I agree with you on everything except the first sentence. Different classes, combinations and connections produce various forms of patterns. Every single bet/combination on the layout creates different patterns. So what? I just can't see how exactly you prove me wrong. Maybe I missed something? Explain it further for me, please.

And this most of all. You are clueless. You confirm it while you constantly attempt to disprove things with just your opinion. There is no other way to see this. Either I'm right or you are right. Either I'm wrong or you are wrong. I'm the one that goes into a casino and does it. You are just a mouth with an opinion that is clueless.

I think you are confusing me with someone else. As I said, I'm an open-minded person and that's why I'm on this forum and trying to have conversation with you. I just respond to, in my opinion, not quite accurate statements.

[Spike!]

To win, you need to make up parameters that don't exist, and pretend they do. I said a long time ago that I made up a game I play within the existing game of roulette. In that game, conditional probability works on roulette.

Who can say how much intuitive probability has to do with educated guessing. The more I practice, the better I get. Einstein said:

«The only really valuable thing is intuition. There is no logical way to the discovery of these elemental laws. There is only the way of intuition, which is helped by a feeling for the order lying behind the appearance.»

The more familiar you are with what you do, the better your intuition (guessing) becomes. But there's no way to isolate it, so who knows. There is definately an "order lying behind the appearance" in roulette..

[mistarlupo]

Thank you for your constructive input, it's appreciated.

Human intuition is a very interesting topic that I plan to investigate further. What I find a bit confusing is that experience may affect intuition negatively. Intuition performance is very obvious "when someone with limited experience achieves better than expected results". "One would expect experienced players to outperform novices, but we often see the opposite happening" (a.k.a. beginner's luck). "Once the "innocent" psychological mindset is replaced by one that is concerned with the nuances of the game, concentration goes out the window and skill level decreases."

So isn't it better for a novice "guesser" to concentrate on intuition (future outcome/s only) rather than on experience (= past results)?

[Spike!]

So isn't it better for a novice "guesser" to concentrate on intuition>>>

Who's better at diagnosing a patient, a novice fresh out of medical school, or a doctor who's been doing it for 30 years? Intuition has nothing to do with mind reading or predicting the future or the occult, its about your brain processing information from experience that you're not aware of. Somebody with practice and experience will always have a better intuition record than somebody who's new at it. Einstein wasn't born with intuition, its something he developed over the years.

[Far-Q]

Hi
Thank you for a couple of interesting posts. 
I have followed your posts for some time spike (not everyone in here thinks you are just out to cause trouble) . . . let the s**t storm begin!

[Spike!]

 have followed your posts for some time spike>>

Wise move..

[Jakkalsdraai]

When is the challenge Spike?

Still waiting patiently.

[Carpanta]

In roulette using intuition to place next bets has to do with secuencies and frecuencies of what has been outcoming in last spins. What and How are the very questions to answer. So tracking the place (area, sockets) where the ball lands (secuency) and time (frecuency) are the keys where to find the clues to beat roulette.

[Carpanta]

When is the challenge Spike?

Still waiting patiently.

Lol, this is a good one. Patience is the mother of science it is said. My intuition taking into account last 1000 posts tells me you'll have to be very very patient wainting to that very very rare event to happen.

[Jakkalsdraai]

Lol, this is a good one. Patience is the mother of science it is said. My intuition taking into account last 1000 posts tells me you'll have to be very very patient wainting to that very very rare event to happen.

Exactly what I was thinking! I guess it is no "educated guess" that it'll never happen.

[Spike!]

Been too busy lately, its summer here.

[Jakkalsdraai]

See you phrase yourself as the snowman melter........whereas you are the one melting mate. Guess it is Summer there. 

[Spike!]

Empirical probability estimates probabilities from experience and observation. Empirical means: 'Relying on experience or observation alone without due regard for system and theory.'

Empirical Probability of an event is an estimate (educated guess) that the event will happen based collecting data. It is based specifically on direct observations.

Combined with conditional probability and reading random, and you have the MathNazis squirming like virgins seeing their first porn flick..

[mistarlupo]

Hellooo? Mr Brownell? You did not bother to reply to my last post? Very untypical of you.

[mistarlupo]

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