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What of this method?

Started by esoito, July 10, 2009, 11:36:46 PM

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esoito

What of using an 'educated guess' as a selection method? I'm aware of one poster who uses it. There could be others.

I'm only interested in answers that take the question seriously -- if you want to make stupid remarks or naysay then kindly DON'T, please   :)

Many fields of human activity use educated guesses -- meteorology comes readily to mind. Playing the stock market. You'll think of others.

To my mind a guess is a form of prediction.

In the context of roulette, the adjective 'educated' could refer to the player's past experience of observing patterns and trends. Or it could refer to something quite different.

Can anyone offer a working definition?  (At the moment the concept seems to mean different things to different posters. Hardly surprising, though.)

Perhaps the concept defies definition?

Is it an art? A mathematical science? A physical science? Or all three in some combination?

Is a degree of creativity involved?

Who uses it? How? Why? With what strike rate/ROI and all that?

What is the role of 'gut feeling'?

Does it involve visualisation? Or a level of psychic awareness?

And so on...

I'd like to see some serious discussion as to how this method could work...over to you.

hoper35

Is it something you're born with, something you develop, or both?

I sometimes find it hard to trust mine.


Ron.

TwoCatSam

esoito

I'd love to discuss this without the vitriol.

Are you guessing after having looked at the marquee?  Or could you be totally blindfolded with me placing your bets?

It has been my experience that "educated" guesses are based on "gut feelings" which come from years of experience.  I told Dr. Hunter my symptoms.  He told me he would xray but also told me what the xray would show before we took it.  Educated guess from 30 years of seeing arthritis patients.

Let's liken me to a roulette wheel.  My telling him of my pain was the marquee.  Had I just walked in and said, "Doc, I'm ailin'", he might not have been so good with his diagnosis.  We walk up to a wheel and "guess" red.  Is that an educated guess?  What in our past gives us the "gut feeling" red will hit, especially if we have not seen the marquee?  I know; all spins are independent trials so no marquee is needed.

Suppose it's a brand new wheel never been spun.  Would it be possible to make an educated guess as to where the first ball would land?

Frankly, I find it hard to believe.

Sam

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Yes you could use educated guess work but it has an mechanical element.
The only thing that has not on mechanical element is a blind man who put hes chips on the green carpet.

Educated guess work is based upon some thing like when you play with the wheel there is a reason why you do so and if you play aginst it is the same thing or you use bouth.
Demonstration.

I have black and i know there will be more of 123 so i pick 2 and 3 and follow black to become 2 black in a row.
It fails and i get red.
Then i know i bet black again to hit two singles in a row it fails.
Two bets on what is most common and it fail.

Now i have Black Red Red and will guess.
Play with or against and why.

Well i might say i want get 4 x BRRR or 4 x BRRB
If i guess different every time this situation happens i play random.

Random against random stand for it self.
Educated guess is mechanical.

A blind man can not out guess 50/50 and no way with educated guess with out an mechanical element.

Cheers

Stepydan

Hello all  :)

As for educated guessing, I think this is the only tool we ever use. As far as roulette is concerned, defenders of advantage play use also a form of educated guessing, because it is all based on past outcomes.

When you do visual ballistics, you make an educated guess, because you have observed in the last n outcomes that when the ball passes under this diamond at this time, then it falls on that pocket.
If you use dealer signature, you've detected that with this particular dealer, the ball tends to fall on this sector.
So advantage play observes first, then try to get results based on conditions built on the past.

When you try to design a mathematical system, what I would rather call a statistical - probability model, you - again - use educated guessing, based upon trends and patterns detection. We see the same idea in the background : relying on past events to decide what should be the move.

The edge of the advantage play over the mathematical - statistical way is that, especially in the case of VB, the laws of newtonian physics come to the rescue : not many variables to take into account, much less need for confidence intervals.

With statistical - probability models, the whole point is to detect the right trends, patterns, correlations. In that case, roulette is nothing but a RNG, so nothing tangible, therefore newton is of little help.

It seems to me that humanity uses a great deal of statistics - probability for predicting purposes in a vast diversity of fields : weather, animal or human behaviour, medicine, insurance, you name it. For example (forgive me for being trivial here), it has been observed many many times that there is a strong correlation between summertime and hot temperatures, so that we can make correct choices when that particular time of the year happens.

The particularity or roulette as an RNG is that we cannot lean on something that we can physically grasp, so we have yet to find the right elements that explain the number generation process.  To this time, I know of only two ways of thinking that seem serious :
- the so called "law of the third", a phenomenon that can be observed over and over.
- the people that pretend to get the relationships between numbers : Enygmista - Gamlet, and G. T. Hushion (Cracking pi . com). Based on the few clues they give us, I for one, have not come with anything worth it yet. I even wonder, in the case of the former, what is the point in leaving so little evidence.

Cheers  :)

Stepydan.

Tangram

The Free Dictionary defines it as: "a guess that is likely to be correct because you have enough knowledge about a particular subject"

For me, in the context of roulette the knowledge is knowledge of probability, and what patterns represent the limits within which any given chance can operate. Someone without this knowledge may "guess" at what the next outcome (or series of outcomes) may be, but it isn't "educated" if the guess is based on nothing (except hope).

To a maths dogmatist, a guess is as good as an educated guess, ie; no amount of "education" will increase the likelihood that your guess is any better than random (as per the doctrine of random, independent trials).

If you're not using physics, then all you have is past results, so your guess is educated by these, (both "immediate" past results of what you are currently playing, and experience of many other past results, and the probability of these).

Suppose you were given 2 sets of past results, you could use your knowledge and experience of roulette to make an educated guess as to which set came from a even chance, and which came from a dozen:

set1: - WWLWLLLWWLLWLWWLWLWLLLLWLWLLWLWWL
set2:   WLLLWLLLLLWLLLWWLLLLLLLWLLLWLLWLLLLWLL

Most people might guess that set1 = EC and set2 = Dozen, but in fact the reverse is true. If you want to become a good educated guesser, you need to know how to "read" past results and be able to answer questions such as: "how long is set2 going to continue in this way before I can be 99% sure that the decisions did NOT come from an EC?

If you study enough decisions (or learn enough probability theory) you will know the answers to this and many other questions, which will educate your guessing to the degree that you are able to do consistently better than mere chance would dictate (maths dogmatists not withstanding).  :clapping:

Quote from: I have cookiesEducated guess is mechanical.

I agree. All this talking about mechanical and non-mechanical is just semantics. Even if you are making bets in an "adaptive" way you have a reason to bet one decision rather than another, and your decisions are worked out in advance. They must be, otherwise how would you know that the decision to bet one way or another is any better than "blind" guessing? so it's mechanical.

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Thanks Tangram for a nice reply.

Cheers

Tangram

Quote from: I have cookiesThanks Tangram for a nice reply.
You're welcome.  :)

Quote from: StepydanAs for educated guessing, I think this is the only tool we ever use. As far as roulette is concerned, defenders of advantage play use also a form of educated guessing, because it is all based on past outcomes.

Stepydan,

Yes, but I suppose you could say that of any speculative activity (forex, sports betting etc). I think esoito was talking about "educated guessing" purely as a statistical/mathematical method.

rjeaton1

QuoteI agree. All this talking about mechanical and non-mechanical is just semantics. Even if you are making bets in an "adaptive" way you have a reason to bet one decision rather than another, and your decisions are worked out in advance.

That was an excellent statement that is absolutely true...

Here is why I agree with it:

Let's say over the course of 10 minutes you played a set of 20 spins...you waited until the first 3 spins were over then bet every spin thereafter betting only on red or black.

After those 10 minutes were over, you're memory of the past 10 minutes was erased (without your knowledge) and then you were give the same 20 spins over the next 10 minutes...

You would bet EXACTLY the same way...this is because your "educated guessing" is based on past experiences.  If you didn't bet EXACTLY the same way, then you're not using "educated guessing" you're just guessing.

The only reason people say "adaptive" or "non-mechanical" or "educated guessing" strategys are such is because they are using way more triggers than they realize...but they are triggers all the same.

Let's say the above example happened again, but this time they didn't erase your memory, and then you were given the same ten spins again to play...you would bet differently...because you just had the experience with those same spins.

As your "experiences" change...so does "why" you bet the way you do...but their will always be a reason.

If you stop playing after being up 100 units one day because "your gut" says you should stop...it's because you know that often times it is unlikely to get much higher than that without going down.

The next time you play you might try to make it to 110 units before you stop because (without you actually saying this to yourself) last time you played you made it to 100 successfully...still, again, a trigger...but different than the last time.

The human brain is capable of holding thousands of triggers and using them all while playing...but if you EVER make a decision that is based on looking up at the marquee and then making an "educated guess" you've in fact, just used a trigger...you might think it's a guess because you didn't take the time to quantify why you made that decision, but there IS a reason.

So, next time you're playing use the "guessing" method...but everytime you make a guess wait 10 seconds and REALLY think about why you made that "guess"...you'll come up with a reason why I can assure you.

Each time you come up with a reason why, write it down.  Do this for say...100 bets...see how triggers you've written down.

You'll probably have...roughly...100 DIFFERENT triggers...some going 3 spins back...some 60 spins back...but again...all triggers just the same.

So, what looks like "adaptive play" is just the use of WAY more triggers than most "systems" are ever programmed with which makes it look as though it bets without triggers.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again...

If the way you play is based on anything other than blind guessing it can be programmed...this is because you're playing based on "making decisions" using past spins.

So, in closing:

There is no such thing as "educated guessing" that isn't using triggers as to why you bet the way you did.  There will always be a reason why you bet the way you did...that reason is the trigger...it might (and probably will) change every spin, but it is a trigger all the same.

Tangram

Good post rj, you fleshed out my earlier reply very nicely.  ;)

Call it a "favourable situation", "opportunity", "trigger" etc - they all amount to the same thing.

It's the same with the word "System". Those who say no system works, but "educated guessing" or "adaptive strategies" do are also just playing with words in my opinion. To me a system is money management + bet selection, no matter if the bet selection is very complex or "dynamic". What the system nay-sayers mean is that no simple system works. And with that I agree. Of course, you have to define what "simple" means, other than "any system which fails".  ;D And of course, just because a system is complex and/or has many triggers doesn't of itself necessarily mean it will win.

I haven't used Mr Chips' 4selecta, but by all accounts it makes a consistent profit. It is complex, but could certainly be coded (as could any method, only the non-programmers deny this can be done).

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QuoteAn adaptive strategy has no mechanics. But you do have to look at past outcomes to determine how the flow is going, sometimes as few as three or four, sometimes ten or fifteen. How else are you supposed to adapt? You can't do it on one spin because you can't get a clear picture.
QuoteYou can't do it on one spin because you can't get a clear picture.

Yes you can.
I know one way and developing one more but need help.

2 <<< 1 spin      
2 W             
2 L             
1 W          
1 W    
2 W                
2 W                
2 L    
1 W                            
1 W    
2 W           
2 W    
1 W       
2 L       
1 W       
1 L   
2 W                   
1 L         
2 W                              
2 L   
1 W                          
2 L            
2 L                
2 L
1 <<< 1 spin
2 L                   
1 W             
1 L       
2 W              
2 W    
1 W    
2 L             
1 W             
2 W    
2 L    
1 W       
1 W       
1 L       
2 W    
2 W    
1 W   
1 W            
1 L    
2 W     
1 L       
2 W       
2 L   
1 W   
2 L          
1 W     
1 L   
1 L    
2 W             
1 L    
1 L          
2 W     
2 W
2 L
2 L   
2 L   
2 <<< 1 spin
1 L
1 L    
2 W    
2 W    
1 W    
2 L       
1 W              
2 W    
1 W     
1 L     
1 L     
1 L  
1 <<< 1 spin
2 L          
1 W       
1 L    
1 L        
2 W
2 W    
2 L    
1 W          
2 L       
1 W     
1 L
2 W    
2 W  
2 L
1 W
1 W
2 W
1 L
2 W                
1 W    
1 L    
2 W    
2 W
2 L
2 L    
1 W
2 L                
1 W    
1 L
1 L    
2 W
1 L
2 W    
2 L
1 W       
1 W
1 L
1 L    
2 W       
1 L
1 L    
1 L
2 <<< 1 spin   
2 W    
1 W    
1 W    
1 L
1 L       
1 L      
2 <<< 1 spin
2 W    
2 L    
1 W        
2 L
2 L
1 W    
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 L
2 W
2 L   
2 L   
2 L
1 <<< 1 spin
1 W    
2 W   
2 W   
1 W   
1 W      
1 L
1 L    
2 W    
2 W   
2 L   
1 W      
2 L   
2 L   
2 L
2 <<< 1 spin
2 W
2 L
2 L   
2 L   
2 <<< 1 spin   
2 W
2 L
2 L   
1 W    
1 W
1 L   
2 W    
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 W
2 W      
1 L
1 L
1 L
2 <<< 1 spin
2 W
2 L   
2 L       
2 L    
2 <<< 1 spin
2 W
1 W
1 W   
2 W   
2 W
1 W
1 W
2 W
2 W
2 L
1 W       
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 L
2 W      
1 W
1 L
2 W
2 W
2 L
2 L
2 L
2 <<< 1 spin
2 W
2 L
2 L   
2 L   
1 <<< 1 spin
2 L
1 W       
2 W     
2 L
1 W    
2 L
2 L
2 L

I have cookies

There is so many ways.
Templating and pick 16 trails it should take over 1024 trails before that sequense hit again.
You divide and pick 4 referens points with mirror and straigt image of past become the key word.

Can be a good strategie for tournement play.

Cheers

rjeaton1

@ bateman >>  Just so you know, this is not me arguing...I think this is a good healthy debate.

Anyway, my point...er, question...

When you place a bet...do you have a reason for placing it?

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QuoteYou can't get an idea of the random flow by looking at one spin.

Why not it is 50/50.
It does not matter what pattern you use.

RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

What come next Red or Black?

R

What comes next Red or Black?

Cheers

rjeaton1

@ Bateman >>  For you to say "there are no pre-defined triggers" that would mean you would have to walk up to the table everytime as if you'd never played roulette before...because if you have played before and you don't allow yourself to ignore that information, that means when you place your very first bet and any bet thereafter, you're basing it on something....that something is a trigger...whatever that something is....and however many of those somethings there are....and however many somethings you "invent" while you're playing...

Just because a bet is placed with reasoning developed "on the fly" doesn't mean it isn't a trigger...it is...it's just a trigger that you decided upon whilst playing...but again, next time you're playing, EVERY SINGLE TIME you place a bet, write down why you placed it...

If you CAN'T write anything down, then you're simply guessing...not educated guessing...but guessing the same as a blind/deaf man would.

However, if you write ANYTHING down...anything at all...that/those are triggers...it doesn't matter that didn't have any "reasons" about why you would place a bet when you were walking up to the table...what matters is that you had a "reason" when you actually placed a bet on the table.  

That reason is a trigger...doesn't matter when you come up with it or when you decide to use it...it's a trigger...a reason for betting is a trigger...

rjeaton1

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