The Monty Hall problem

[mistarlupo]

You're shown three boxes by a benefactor from which you must select one. Two are empty but the third contains great wealth. You do not know which contains the fortune although the benefactor does. You make your choice and pick one. Before you open it, the benefactor opens one of the remaining boxes and reveals its contents. NOTHING INSIDE. He then offers you the chance of changing your original selection and exchanging it for the remaining unopened box. That's the dilemma. Do you swap, do you keep your original choice, does it make any difference to your chance of success?

For those of you who are not familiar with the Monty Hall problem: try to give an answer here before googling for it.

[VLSroulette]

he he, mistar, you have to admin when this is presented by the first time to a person it does make him/her think (Barely nobody gets to give a 1-second answer).

Okay gents, don't cheat! Do try to solve it mentally and then resort to Google... nolinks://montyhallproblem.com/

[Mr J]

I have been studying this for years. My only question/concern still remains. If this problem was automated rather than a human element involved, is there any difference in the outcome? Ken

[mistarlupo]

Hmm, I think it's not gonna be that hard to be coded. I can actually try and share the results. Any predictions?

[bombus]

Hmm, I think it's not gonna be that hard to be coded. I can actually try and share the results. Any predictions?

If it's done right,... there will be no difference.

[mistarlupo]

nolinks://nolinks.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm

70 / 30... Using the simulator above. I'm not sure how legitimate it is though.

[gizmotron]

Nice app mistarlupo.

Now a little context to throw an idea on the table. You know the sections/columns bets. Now look at the same logic with this. What happens when a trend (dominance) shows that one of the three sections or columns among all three respectively have a break. What happens when one section sleeps for twenty spins. Do you have an advantage when that happens?

[bombus]

Nice app mistarlupo.

Now a little context to throw an idea on the table. You know the sections/columns bets. Now look at the same logic with this. What happens when a trend (dominance) shows that one of the three sections or columns among all three respectively have a break. What happens when one section sleeps for twenty spins. Do you have an advantage when that happens?

Yes,
..and I posted something like this elsewhere.
I posted that I believed Spike probably watched all 3 even chances and probably used a Monty Hall type principal (among others) to select his bets.

[gizmotron]

Yes,
..and I posted something like this elsewhere.
I posted that I believed Spike probably watched all 3 even chances and probably used a Monty Hall type principal (among others) to select his bets.

I've been referring to them as combinations. One example is to take the long shot form. You bet the odd-reds combo, you bet the high-black, the low-even combos. You even put a lot on five numbers like the even-high-black combo. You also combine the columns where one sleeps and you bet the red only in the other two hot columns. It's comes down to effective guessing while exposing combinations based on multiple trends. I even have a method for waiting for times when it works. I don't do things like this when it's not working. Any losses are like triggers not to use this. Then again there are the odds that nine tries balance out when four numbers are used. Same goes for four tries for nine numbers when they are used. It's good to see combinations and combined dominances. That always pays off better when that hits.

[TwoCatSam]

You always win a higher percentage if you switch.  Marilyn Vos Savant proved this in Parade Magazine.  Computer simulations have been written and over a gazillion tries, you always come out ahead if you switch.

It cannot work with roulette as you MUST have a moderator who KNOWS which box the car is in and which box the goats are in.  (That's the real Month Hall!)  With roulette, if you picked dozen one, and someone could guarantee you dozen two would lose, you could switch to dozen three and always be in the black.

Let's find that person who can tell us dozen two will lose!

Aw, it's "The Amazing Spiki" and he's not talking.

(TwoCat humor there Spike.  Don't send the furies after me!)

Sam

[gizmotron]

That's just it. In a situation where the center column sleeps for 20 spins you can assume you are being told that for a while it will not hit. All you do is bet the other two columns with a flat bet on each. For that matter you might figure on a positive progression for a few spins. I was just attempting to show that having a source for an advantage can come in the form of a continuing streak. Of course nobody is going to provide you with a sure thing.

[TwoCatSam]

Dang!

[pighead]

A Detailed explanation of this problem can be found at the link below:


nolinks://nolinks.montyhallproblem.com/

Another idea to apply the technique in bet selection is to make guess for the next 3 spins result. if you do not get the first one right, change the decision for the next two spins..

PH

[gizmotron]

spining7 - "I don't play that way anymore because I will not go back to a casino until I find a simple method/bet I can rely on. I'm not a fan of being pumped up with emotional chemicals every time I sit at a table."

There will never be a bet you can rely on. You can float pretty successfully around the even chances. It's never wrong to attack an obvious trend when it happens. In fact it's kind of dumb not to.

[cheese]

It's never wrong to attack an obvious trend when it happens. In fact it's kind of dumb not to.>>

Very dumb. When you see nothing but mostly low numbers hitting, jump on the train, who knows when it will end. I've seen one side dominate for 200 spins.

[cheese]

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