Random?

[lucky_strike]

Sports betting and odds.

Would you read about what experts have to say and would you play singel games every day with odds like:

1 X 2

1.35 - 1
2.60 - X
8.00 - 2

Or would you pick a singel game to play every day and skip the experts comments and go for odds like:

1 X 2

2.00 - 1
2.80 - X
2.35 - 2

Cheers LS

[Toothpaste]

Hi mate. I know something about betting...
Well, this type of bet depends on its value, if you think 1.35 is too low (and often it is), then you skip that bet. Since, alot of people will bet on that 1.35, therefore lower odds to 1.3 or less, while on the other hand no event is certain. I would go with my knowledge, as it is the best way to consistently win. If you follow experts all the time, you can lose, and never understand why you lost, and if you do your picks, then you learn from your mistakes.
Of course, like in any form of gambling, discipline is involved.

Sorry for going bit offtopic. Now, I'd normally skip first one, and think about second one, but house margin is waaay too high (almost 30%), and I'm sure there are more valuable odds somewhere else. It should look more like
2.25   3.50   2.50

But if you cant get better odds, then you would have to look at which bet has more value to you.

Cheers, TP

[lucky_strike]

Hi Toothpaste thanks for your reply.
Now i think you have more experience to this then i have.

I like to pick singel games with the lowest differens because i think nature and random will be the judge.
Not the true odds and i think its a good thing, not bad.
Well i like the idea that it would be so, i am not sure it is.
Experementing.

This is how it could look like if i take a pick for some days with the lowest differens.
I use my own rules and there is one, the lowest odds has to be 2.00.

2080701

Skip

20080702

2.15 - 2.95 - 2.25

20080703

2.15 - 2.35 - 2.75

20080704

Now i woundering if i download groups of 100 outcomes with the numbers 123 from random.org, then would the result be the same as
the result i get picking singel games with the lowest differens 1X2 ?

If yes we can develop a sport betting system.
If no i skip this but i need some opinions regerding this.

Thanks.

Cheers Lucky Strike

[lucky_strike]

Toothpaste I will add this when I say nature and random - this is the tougts.

If its rain then we don´t know if team A or B is more effective playing with that condition.

If the judge make an error when they play then we don´t know if its going to be a favor for A or B.

So there is many more conditions and that, so thats why I use the words nature and random.

Cheers LS

[Toothpaste]

Hi mate.
You could try getting numbers from random.org and see how it goes, but it would be best if you get some history and compare it with that, because, if you simply bet on odds, you could end up losing all. You need atleast some knowledge, and I think you have it not to blindly select any match.
10 losses in a row on those odds isnt such a rare event, so using progression and playing less than 30 bets monthly, could make you lose it all if you want to end up in significant profit each month. It's alot similar to roulette if you go with mechanical picking of matches.

Judging by the odds, you probably bet on soccer. You could have more realistic test if you go to a site, like nolinks.betexplorer.com and get real results and odds from there so you see how your tests go. Optimal period of testing would be 6 months to see how system goes.
I think you are experienced gambler, and will make good conclusions from it, and im interested in reading them. Of course, if you need anything, I'd be more than glad to share all I know about this with you or any other member. But yes, experimenting is the way to go

EDIT : Yes, rain and judges do add randomness to it, true... but knowledge of what you picked is still above it. Of course, you can't get them all, but you should be able to end up positive with just flat betting.

Cheers, TP

[lucky_strike]

Hi Toothpaste.

Thanks.

When I say nature and random it does not only have to do with conditions.

I think that figures and repeats are a part of nature - patterns - and I would like to explore them regarding sports betting.

This is the Statistical Ecart Scale for figures of 3.

1. 0,00 = 0
2. 0,04 = 0
3. 0,11 = 0
4. 0,22 = 0
5. 0,36 = 0
6. 0,53 = 1
7. 0,73 = 1
8. 0,96 = 1
9. 1,22 = 1
10. 1,51 = 2
11. 1,82 = 2
12. 2,16 = 2
13. 2,52 = 3
14. 2,91 = 3
15. 3,32 = 3
16. 3,75 = 4
17. 4,20 = 4
18. 4,67 = 5
19. 5,16 = 5
20. 5,67 = 6
21. 6,20 = 6
22. 6,75 = 7
23. 7,31 = 7
24. 7,89 = 8
25. 8,49 = 8
26. 9,10 = 9
27. 9,73 = 10

We track figures of 3.
We write them down as they come.
When one figure has come 2 times then we are going to play that one of the others will come 2 times and we will aim for the figure that has come 2 times to become 3 times.

We do the tracking in groups of 12 then we interact and hit them at 13 14 15 16 17 18.
If groups of 12 does not work we can move up futher on the Statistical Ecart Scale.
There is many different variations to this and this is just one of them.

Toothpaste this is just an experiment and I just want to share and explore things.
Sport betting is a new world for me.

Cheers Lucky Strike

[Toothpaste]

When I was starting with sports betting, I did tests with random numbers too, and results were good. Then I tried to apply it on sports betting and realized it was different.
Maybe you should do your tests and see where it takes you, it's just my experience that this doesnt work in terms of testing. I would be very happy if you found mechanical system that makes significant profit over a period of time.

Cheers, TP

[lucky_strike]

Thanks I like your replys and respect them and want more of your opinions, but I just want to add this.

How can something be a mechanical system if its based upon the law of correction?

The law of correction is a part of nature and I think it overcomes the human guesswork.

Toothpaste I will try to get some actuals and post them here, week for week.

Cheers Lucky Strike

[Toothpaste]

I have to be honest, and say I don't know how the law of correction works.
but, why wait for weeks then? Go to that site and get all matches from last few years (odds are there too), so you can test it in one day

If it works, good, if not, back to drawing board

Cheers, TP

[lucky_strike]

why wait for weeks then? Go to that site and get all matches from last few years (odds are there too), so you can test it in one day

THANKS

I think that a subjective element has to be based upon something as guess work.
If we are going to succed to try flat betting with a humbel recovery progression to break even, then Cut Point Method will do just that I think.

Why put our money based upon hunches when we can use Math Correction Nature Random.

If it works, good, if not, back to drawing board

Exacly I like your style, thanks.


Cheers Lucky Strike

[Tangram]

The law of correction is a part of nature and I think it overcomes the human guesswork.

what is the "law of correction"? 

law of correction = gambler's fallacy

There are ways to find positive expectation in sports betting, but the law of correction isn't one of them. You have to find bets where the chance of your selection winning is better than the odds on offer - simple, but not easy...

I challenge anyone to demonstrate that the "law of correction" can be used to create an advantage!

[lucky_strike]

demonstrate that the "law of correction" can be used to create an advantage

if you want i can show you how to find a serie of 4 or 5 / 8 to 9 times of 10

but i did not know there was any intresst here regarding CPM

Cheers LS

[lucky_strike]

The thing here is that i know how to use CPM regarding 1/2.

So it would be fun to see if you can use 1/3 and use something similiar to CPM.

Cheers LS

[Tangram]

Hi LS,

but I did not know there was any intresst here regarding CPM

I'm always interested in finding ways of playing which give a real advantage, I'm sure other members are too.

if you want I can show you how to find a serie of 4 or 5 / 8 to 9 times of 10

Thanks! please do!

[lucky_strike]

You have to find the qualified signals by your self and try to prove me wrong.

Here is one among many ways to do it.

nolinks://vlsroulette.com/bet-selection/small-series-contra-larger-series-for-tangram/msg14409/#msg14409

Cheers LS

[lucky_strike]

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