Whats The Math of Short Term Probability?

[Kelly]

Its a crappy question asked by someone who clearly don`t get the math at all.

There are no ruling that says red or black or 12 reds cant appear in the next 12 spins, but the probability for a 12 red serie can be calculated and you can calculate how many of that serie type (or any other serie mix consisting of 12 spins) you can expect in X amount of spins. Thats the math behind.

When you then start counting the amount of different serie lenghts (trends) you will soon find out that it is a impossibility to play trends because they break up just as often as they start, (Google "law of the series, roulette" or go to nolinks://nolinks.win-maxx.com/basics/basics11.html

There are no way you can benefit from series/trends/patterns unless you know up front they are gonna appear.  There are just as many break ups as there are starters.  Simple back counting on real permanences proves that.  There are plenty of claims from pseudo players/priests/religious fanatics that claims they can see when a elegant pattern is about to appear because there has been another elegant pattern distribution just before that.  You can choose to believe that if thats your way, but there is no  logic  or math behind it, its simple believing. Some call it religion, with a pope (spike) and a super priest (gizmo). If they one day show me that they actually CAN walk on water, i will never laugh at them again. 

Im not even interested in knowing how they do it, i just wanna see them do it. Will it happen................naa. There is a trend that shows that its all talk, my bet is that the trend will continue. The law of the series doesn`t count in this case.

[Bayes]

Well said kelly! 

[Noble Savage]

lol

My thoughts exactly Kelly.

[gizmotron]

When you then start counting the amount of different serie lenghts (trends) you will soon find out that it is a impossibility to play trends because they break up just as often as they start, (Google "law of the series, roulette" or go to nolinks://nolinks.win-maxx.com/basics/basics11.html

There are no way you can benefit from series/trends/patterns unless you know up front they are gonna appear.  There are just as many break ups as there are starters.

Actually you are presenting a notion that is far too generous. If you look at the probabilities for series you will see that more trends break up than those that continue. There are twice as many that end as there are those that continue. On Ec's there is a 25% chance of getting two in a row of black. On three in a row there is a 12.5% chance.

Since you know that a series has less chance to continue why don't you place bets for it to end? On any single bet you also have the odds for that bet too. In case of the Ec's it's basically 50/50 if the zeros are sleeping. So somehow these sets of odds have no direct effect on the outcome, yet they are connected by probability expectations. I say that probability math is some kind of clustering illusion. That makes it the source for many mathematical fallacies. You have a situation where one set of numbers says that there is a 12.5% chance something will happen while another set of numbers says 50%.

I'm sure you are all very happy with results like that?

[Noble Savage]

You're way off base.

Try again.

[Kelly]

I suggest you do your homework on the basics a little better.  What you describe is a typical beginner conclusion.  Trend starters and stoppers are a 50/50 game minus the house edge. Otherwise you could just aim for a break up in each bet and book  a fortune, thats not really happening is it.  I could explain it to you, but i would have to kill you afterwards.  No seriously, read again, that will be easyer than i rewrite it in my own words. 

The series has the same chance to continue as they have to break up. No matter which way you look at it.

Probability gives conclusions on for example  how many series of 3 you would on average expect in 1000 spins.  Sometimes its spot on, sometimes its far from, but when you add all testsamples up in a larger pot, the results matches the probability calculation so the probabilty theory is sound enough. Short term it also fits, the variation from the mean is measured in standard deviations. 

The math boyz that you guys keeps bashing would NEVER NEVER EVER use probability math to any prediction connected to Roulette.    I don`t know where you get that impression.  I don`t know a math boy that would place a single  bet because he thought something was due unless there were a physical flaw that he was basing his prediction on.

[winkel]

If you look at the probabilities for series you will see that more trends break up than those that continue. There are twice as many that end as there are those that continue.

LOL

That is as wrong as wrong can be:

There are the same number of continuing and breaking Trends.

RRB and RRR has the same probability.

The other thing is:

why don't you place bets for it to end?

if you bet on breaking after RRR you will lose with every other R that follow up to 15 or 26 R.
If you bet on continuing you will just lose 1 chip if it stops at once!

That´s logic, isn´t it?


Any pattern can´t be predicted. But I know there is always a pattern.
So if I just bet on a possible pattern I will have a better chance.

RBRBR. why not bet on B?
RRRBB. why not bet on B?
RRBBR. why not bet on R?

I just lose one chip? What is the problem?

br
winkel

[Kelly]

 
 

RBRBR. why not bet on B?
RRRBB. why not bet on B?
RRBBR. why not bet on R?

I just lose one chip? What is the problem ?

No problem, but its a dead end or 50/50 game.

[gizmotron]

Great, "The series has the same chance to continue as they have to break up. No matter which way you look at it."

So I can't pull the wool over the newbies eyes, you won't let me.

Here is where you are really stuck. None of you will ride a long trend. You advise against trends so you get none of the good runs. By your own logic there is nothing but a slight advantage to the house. You admittedly think that you can't do better than that. But I'm saying that you can maneuver through the data and take the advantages as times to pocket more than just blind house advantage stakes. You see, I can't try to not see the big trends. I can't just forget that it's right in front of me happening and not see it. You can. You admit that there is no advantage ever. I see them all the time. There is no math solution for that. I get it. You don't.

[Kelly]

I belive you as soon as you show me just 1 that i can safely bet on.  Like i said, if you know a 12 serie is gonna occur, you can safely bet on it with an advantage, but you need a crystal bowl for that, not previous spins. I got software that can test all kind of trend chasing from 1 to 99 R/B in a row.  I have testet the better part of 100 triggers to start chasing a trend starting from BB to BBBBBBBBBB ending with the fist loss, and letting it ride for as long as the trend is.. IT DOES NOT WORK. Negative figures in the end, always.

But thats the problem with you, you have to hide behind the big picture because when it comes down to actually putting the big picture together in real play, it will fall apart.  Otherwise im sure you would have been much more specific ages ago.  Its much easyer  to hide behind a black cape with a logo saying: "Everybody else are fools because they can`t prove i can`t walk on water as long as i won`t show them i can"

But then again, who should we pick on, on a slow afternoon if we didn`t have you guys.

[gizmotron]

I belive you as soon as you show me just 1 that I can safely bet on. 

Here is how it works. There are an equal number of losses to all the wins achievable by any streaks, if you were to blindly bet everything the same. There is no way to select any trend without it balancing out in the long run, if you bet without changing. None of that can prevent you from betting larger at the streaks of favorable guesses though, and betting minimum at the typically balanced times when guessing gets you house average results. If you lose a bet you know that a streak of bad guesses might follow soon. So you bet until you see a change. You just don't attack while things are hinting bad things. So all I can do is tell you when it is definitely not safe. Knowing when things correct in order to balance the outcomes is more important than breaking even. Losing when you are supposed to is part of making the house's advantage work the way it does. So you must limit your losses while attacking your good moments. This whole idea for trends is just so that you can see what is happening with bet selections. You can use any bet selection method that you want to. You just have to use flat betting as the discovery method.

[winkel]

  No problem, but its a dead end or 50/50 game.

Yes if you just purely put the math on it, and let your intelligence in front of the door!

If there is 50/50 to breck or continue
then
if it breaks I lose -1
if it continues I win 1
if it breaks now I´m +-0
if it continues I´m +2

and so on.

but not only BBBBBB is a pattern or serie
also RBRBRB....
also RRBBRRBB..
also RBBRBBRBBR

so what ist the chance to meet any pattern?
so what is the chance to meet at least one pattern?
so what is the calc if you win a pattern with a "earning" progression (progression in the win) against losing just 1 chip with every broken pattern?

I bet with you: give me any 20 spins and I will find and win on a pattern I saw coming up!

br
winkel

[Herb6]

No you can't.

The chance of you guessing the EC correctly on the next spin remains 18/37 on the single zero wheel.

I don't know why you guys can't grasp that each spin of the wheel is an independent trial.  

In the long run you will find that you can't predict an EC any better or any worse than chance would dictate. (Outside of any statistical significance.)

[gizmotron]

If there is 50/50 to breck or continue
then
if it breaks I lose -1
if it continues I win 1
if it breaks now I´m +-0
if it continues I´m +2

I was at a table two weeks ago that had all red numbers on the marquee. If I were to play minimum flat stakes until that began to form up I could have risked table limits to win at least 10 times the table limits. Doing this is all about being comfortable losing a single table limit bet. To win at trends you must figure out how to stake a full powered bet. So if you can win one big bet, later, you can attack the strong trends with it. The entire game of Roulette is about winning one single large bet. You then take what that gives you to the bank. Playing small stakes to find a working streak at minimums is ridiculous.

[Herb6]

Gizmo, 

It's very easy to look back and curve fit to what has already happened and say, "See, I would have won this ---------much!"


What you're not seeing or remembering is the series after that series and the one after that where you would have lost.

[Herb6]

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