Question for the AP guys

[Mr J]

No, I'm not causing trouble. I thought of this due to Spikes interesting thread. Question for the AP guys....can you name one or two styles of roulette betting NOT related to AP *and* is also not GF?  Ken

[Noble Savage]

Off the top of my head:

- Betting randomly, for entertainment (knowing that you can't beat the random game)

- Betting on something specific like birthday numbers or a system knowing that it doesn't work, merely for entertainment (knowing that you can't beat the random game)

- Past posting or any similar cheating methods.

This is where you either imply that didn't understand the question, or laugh and call me a mathboy, etc.

[Mr J]

I know, you are gonna say I "dont like your answer" but its NOT the case. I need to ask in more detail, my FAULT. I'm talking about a thought out METHOD, a style of play. Not just goofing around like betting birthdays etc.  I also dont mean cheating, come on.  lol  Ken

[Noble Savage]

As far as I know, GF applies to any method that uses past spins believing to have gained some sort of advantage over the random game. That about covers all systems I guess. lol

[Mr J]

"That about covers all systems I guess" >>> BINGO. We'll see what other AP guys have to say.  Ken

[Mr J]

"GF applies to any method that uses past spins" >>> but as discussed, GF is NOT only for past spins so there should be quite a few examples of other forms of betting not related to AP or GF. I assume.  Ken

[Steve]

GF is nothing more than a common misconception. ie something that is believed to be true when it isnt true. There are countless forms of GF - not just thinking after 10 reds that black is more likely to spin next.

can you name one or two styles of roulette betting NOT related to AP *and* is also not GF?

Advantage Play is a very broad term. For roulette, AP is basically any legitimate method to beat roulette. If you had something entirely new that was not VB or bias analysis, if it legitimately wins in the long term, then it can be considered AP. You can basically say AP = legitimate method. Ken, if your method legitimately beats roulette in the long term, you would be an Advantage Player.

A style of betting that is not related to AP and not GF... there is no such thing. If a method loses, it is based on GF... assuming the player actually expects to win in the long term. If a method legitimately wins in the long term, then it is AP.

It also depends on the context in which a term such as AP is used though. Typically AP refers to finding flaws in a game that make game outcomes more predictable. A perfect example is finding wheels with a good dominant diamond, then using VB.

[Noble Savage]

I've said it before, if you have an advantage and play with it, you're an advantage player, i.e. an AP.

[Spike!]

if your method legitimately beats roulette in the long term, you would be an Advantage Player.>>

Don't lump me in with Kelly and Laurance and Herbie. What I do is EAP, Exceptional Advantage Play. What they do is ready for the Special Olympics of Roulette..

[Steve]

GF applies to any method that uses past spins believing to have gained some sort of advantage over the random game.

Any advantage play requires past results. Without past results, there is no analysis. Without analysis, there are no patterns. Without patterns to follow, you dont know where to bet for an advantage.

Do past spins affect future spins? YES, but not in the way you may immediately think. I mean that the previous winning number in part determines when/where the ball will be picked up and respun. But that's the limit of it. For something like bias analysis, past spins still affect future spins in this way, but the typical bias player only uses the past spins to find a bias and exploit it.

The typical situation where a "GF player" attempts to use past spins to predict the future is by saying something like after 10 reds, black is more likely to spin next. So they go about it all wrong.

[Steve]

Ken, the girl in your avatar has great tits.. just thought I'd point that out, pun intended.

[Noble Savage]

Do past spins affect future spins? YES

Well yes, but when we say that past spins don't affect future ones, we're obviously doing so within the context of the random/mathematical game (which these guys claim to beat), not the physical device.

[Mr J]

 "if your method legitimately beats roulette in the long term, you would be an Advantage Player" >>> So to re-word it a little, AP (long term) is the ONLY winning way to beat roulette. Ken

[Bayes]

There are not countless forms of GF, GF is this:

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy  (due to its significance in a Monte Carlo casino in 1913)[1]  or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process then these deviations are likely to be evened out by opposite deviations in the future. For example, if a fair coin is tossed repeatedly and tails comes up a larger number of times than is expected, a gambler may incorrectly believe that this means that heads is more likely in future tosses.

Source: wikipedia.

So if you use any of the 'standard' patterns of bet selection, e.g. DBL, OLD, FTL etc, plus any form of mechanical 'template' betting, is not GF. Just because you won't win with them doesn't mean they're gambler's fallacy. GF is not a 'catch-all' for any non-AP method, it's something quite specific.

Also any kind of money-management or progression is not gambler's fallacy. For example, you're quite justified in using an 8 step martingale because the chance of hitting an 8 spin losing sequence is relatively low. The odds are always stacked against you, but it's not GF, it's just gambling.

[Spike!]

There are not countless forms of GF, GF is this:>>

Thats one version, there are many others. Thats just the one you like. I understand that. None of them are correct, however.

[Spike!]

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