Interesting point from the Wiz site

[Mr J]

A few days ago, someone brought up an interesting point regarding (yet again) past numbers. *ALWAYS* a favorite subject of mine.

We'll use the 00 wheel for my example. When the AP (cough) crew do their thing regarding looking for a bias wheel/tilted wheel (use whatever term you like), they either jot down many numbers OR we have also read that it only takes a couple spins to spot it IF it exists. I say thats a load of BS but thats a different thread (lol). Anyways, those AP guys are using PAST RESULTS ('gamblers fallacy') to now make their bets and hopefully a profitable day.

Example being, the tilt (or bias) is in the 30, 11, 7, 20 section. Ok, fine whatever. Now take the method guy that also did some tracking etc. and he wants to include those same 4 numbers into his betting METHOD. Whether its flat betting or a progression, does not matter. My point? Its comical that when the AP (cough) crew use PAST RESULTS, its somehow BETTER or more acceptable.....God like almost (lol).


When a hard working method guy wants to use those EXACT SAME numbers, for some reason HE is using gamblers fallacy and destined to lose. Hmmmm, I'm a bit confused.

Ken

[Mr J]

Here is the bottom line for definitions of using past results (gamblers fallacy).

Not EVERY situation can be the SAME definition guys.

I'll give two opposite situations >>

The first, past numbers mean something. I'll track 200 spins. I'll choose 3 numbers for YOU and 3 numbers for me. For myself, I'll take the 3 most recent numbers that have three hits on it (hot).

For you, I choose 3 numbers with the fewest hits in the last 200 spins (very cold). We'll flat bet for the next 20 spins, my numbers against your numbers. We'll do this experiment not once but over 100 different sessions. *ANYONE* who says it will come close to balancing out is LYING, plain and simple. That is an example of past numbers with MEANING.

Now, an example of gamblers fallacy >> The 4 5 6 street has not hit in the last 12 spins so now its DUE to hit SOON.

Are BOTH of my examples the same? Of course not. Do they BOTH use past results? Yes.


Ken

[Mike]

Anyways, those AP guys are using PAST RESULTS ('gamblers fallacy') to now make their bets and hopefully a profitable day.

Example being, the tilt (or bias) is in the 30, 11, 7, 20 section. Ok, fine whatever. Now take the method guy that also did some tracking etc. and he wants to include those same 4 numbers into his betting METHOD. Whether its flat betting or a progression, does not matter. My point? Its comical that when the AP (cough) crew use PAST RESULTS, its somehow BETTER or more acceptable.....God like almost (lol).

When a hard working method guy wants to use those EXACT SAME numbers, for some reason HE is using gamblers fallacy and destined to lose. Hmmmm, I'm a bit confused.

Ken, the reason you're confused is because you don't understand what gambler's fallacy is. GF is the belief that JUST BECAUSE a number hasn't come in a while then it must be due soon. To "use" GF, you need to look at past results.

On the other hand, the AP guy looks at past results, not because he wants to see which numbers haven't come in a while so that he can bet on them, but because past results are the data which point to a bias or whatever.

Why is the "hard working" method player committing a fallacy but the AP guy isn't?

Because the bias player is looking at OTHER data as well as past numbers. In fact, the past numbers are merely incidental to the main objective which is to locate a bias, which if it exists, is conveniently located by referring to the numbers on the wheel.
On the other hand, the method player doesn't look at anything other than the past numbers themselves, his bet is based on PURE STATISTICS. The trouble with relying on statistics is that numbers will "sleep" anyway just by random chance, there is no guarantee that they will "wake up" just at the moment you start betting on them, that's what makes it a fallacy.  

The AP guy might see a slight wobble in the wheel (whether you believe this is possible or not isn't the point, it doesn't change the PRINCIPLE) which results in the ball being less likely to fall into a particular sector. That's PHYSICS. Physics doesn't rely on probability so you can be sure that the ball will continue to avoid that sector so long as the bias exists.  

So they may both identify the SAME numbers, but the GF guy will be betting FOR them (because they're "due"), but suppose the AP has identified this sector as being one which (because of the bias) the ball will tend to stay away from. The AP guy will then bet AGAINST these numbers, which is opposite from the method player. The winner will be the bias player.  

[Mike]

*ANYONE* who says it will come close to balancing out is LYING, plain and simple.

So are you saying that choosing the "hot" numbers will give the better result?

Again, you're confusing gambler's fallacy with something else. GF only applies to the belief that numbers have to catch up (you got that part right in example of the street 4,5,6).

Believing that because numbers are "hot" then they're more likely to keep hitting is called the INVERSE gambler's fallacy.  

[Mike]

Actually, to be fair, betting on the hot numbers isn't such a bad idea because you may have inadvertently stumbled on a bias:

The conclusion of this reversed gambler's fallacy may be correct, however, if the empirical evidence suggests that an initial assumption about the probability distribution is false. If a coin is tossed ten times and lands "heads" ten times, the gambler's fallacy would suggest an even-money bet on "tails", while the inverse gambler's fallacy would suggest an even-money bet on "heads". In this case, the smart bet is "heads" because the empirical evidence—ten "heads" in a row—suggests that the coin is likely to be biased toward "heads", contradicting the (general) assumption that the coin is fair.

(wikipedia - Gambler's Fallacy)

So wouldn't it be great Ken, after all this hate campaign against the AP players, you actually turn out to be one yourself, only you didn't realise it!  

It's certainly a very BAD idea to bet on a few sleeping numbers which you think are due to wake up.

[Fraudster]

Well to be honest my basic method of play at the moment is to log onto smart live casino

low limit euto wheel .. open the history (last 185 numbers)

and track the last 50 spins on a wheel...

i always see osme areas of the wheel hitting more than others

i try to keep my bets below 24 numbers as a rule and i dont like to exceed a 1,3,9 progression...

ideally i bet around 18-20 numbers on a marty style progression.

i do pretty well 90%$ of the time id say.

im playing as we speak ... image atached ...

[Fraudster]

ok so thats 20 numbers im playing on a marty stle progression

numbers after tracking:

15 W
18 W
20 W
16 W
4 W
24 W
6 L
2 L
20 W
31 W
11 L
28 L
8 L
29 W
5 L
14 W
1 W
16 W
10 L
15 W
7 L
27 L
27 L
4 W
2 L
23 L
4 W
1 W
14 W
32 W
21 L
33 W
7 L
2 L
32 W
33 W
14 W
14 W
16 W


END GAME AS I HAVE TO GO TO WORK

20 NUMBERS PLAYED FOR 39 SPINS - 24 WINS & 15 LOSSES

[Fraudster]

i think thats gice me around 62% average wins.

step 4 was max on my progression, but a flat bet should have produced around a 12% increase in BR.

but a flat bet would have produced a sli

[Kelly]

Ken you keep coming up with the same conclusions and you get the same answers. Nothing really ever changes.

Tracking a tilt has nothing to do with the numbers.  A tilt tracking sheet for a 8 deflector wheel might look like this:

1. XX
2. X
3. XXX
4. XXXX
5. X
6. XXXXX
7. XX
8. XX

See no numbers !!! wooo....... Yeah i know, i numbered the deflectors. Damn.

If a deflector gets more hits there are usually a physical reason. Whatever the reason, the point is that if we know the odds for a diamond to get hit before the ball has even been launched, there can be taken advantage of it.


As for the sleeper/hot number thing, thats just plain rubbish which springs out from not having worked enough with testing.  So far i have not seen ANY difference in long term tests wether you choose hot numbers or sleepers, they all come out in the - 2.7% are with minor fluctations. 

Same old same old.

[ReDsQuaD]

As for the sleeper/hot number thing, thats just plain rubbish which springs out from not having worked enough with testing. 

[Mr J]

Between here and the Wiz site, lets begin.

"the reason you're confused" >>> I'm not confused, I was being an a**hole.

How can I re-ask this? Both guys (AP and the method guy) are using the SAME past numbers for betting REGARDLESS of how or why they got those numbers. (its hard to word this).........Its funny how the AP guys use the SAME numbers but somehow THATS OK. They also used past results. You can give it whatever TITLE you want to BUT they use past results. I dont think you would disagree Mike? The method guy (or system) uses those numbers and he's an idiot?? It makes no sense. The AP (cough) guys can NOT have it both ways.

Ken

[Mr J]

So are you saying that choosing the "hot" numbers will give the better result?

Again, you're confusing gambler's fallacy with something else. GF only applies to the belief that numbers have to catch up (you got that part right in example of the street 4,5,6).

Believing that because numbers are "hot" then they're more likely to keep hitting is called the INVERSE gambler's fallacy.  

Under the EXACT situation I posted, (and 100 trials) I am 100% correct. If you go changing what I said, then I cant comment. *EVERY* *EVERY* situation can NOT be clumped together as gamblers fallacy. I gave 2 opposite examples.

Ken

[Mr J]

Actually, to be fair, betting on the hot numbers isn't such a bad idea because you may have inadvertently stumbled on a bias: (wikipedia - Gambler's Fallacy)

So wouldn't it be great Ken, after all this hate campaign against the AP players, you actually turn out to be one yourself, only you didn't realise it!  

It's certainly a very BAD idea to bet on a few sleeping numbers which you think are due to wake up.

No hate from me, not sure what you mean? I have posted 100000000000000000000 times, I RARELY bet on 'due' anymore. Not sure why you mentioned that. Here is an example: Lets say Snowjob and I lived in the same city, with one casino. I go and track a bunch of numbers and I see that 3 numbers are hitting alot. I DONT CARE WHY but they are hitting alot. I do my betting and I have a great day. Two days later, Snowjob goes (same wheel) and he notices his bias (cough). Bets on those numbers, has a great day. Him and I were betting on the same numbers. Why am I the sucker for betting on those numbers OTHER THAN....I'm a method guy. Who cares?

Ken

[Mr J]

@Kelly >>> I dont want to re-post everything again. Too many HATE posts to get to today.

Maybe my POINT (not question) was taken wrong?

Two different guys from opposite sides of the tracks using the SAME numbers.........Why does one guy want a 21 gun salute cause he's into AP but the other guy is an idiot? (SAME NUMBERS SAME NUMBERS SAME NUMBERS SAME NUMBERS)

Ken

[Mr J]

@Mike & Kelly >> So you are saying this EXACT situation, is WRONG? You are more crazy than I am >>


The first, past numbers mean something. I'll track 200 spins. I'll choose 3 numbers for YOU and 3 numbers for me. For myself, I'll take the 3 most recent numbers that have three hits on it (hot).

For you, I choose 3 numbers with the fewest hits in the last 200 spins (very cold). We'll flat bet for the next 20 spins, my numbers against your numbers. We'll do this experiment not once but over 100 different sessions/trials.

[Mr J]

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