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Its All About PROBABILITY

Started by cheese, November 26, 2011, 10:09:39 PM

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Mr J

  "Well he was successfull when he played sleepers yeeerrrssss ago. Now he plays hot numbers and is still sucessfull" >>> You left out a KEY word.....'MORE' successful. I did 'well' playing sleepers. Dont forget, I have reported many times regarding losing quite alot. Its called TRIAL & ERROR, I have learned a TON over the years, thank God for that !! I still owe ya one J.C. !!!!

Ken   ;)

Kelly


pins

if you guess right its pure chance. we like to think we have some special ability which others do not possess . but think how many times do you guess wrong.  give me one reason why i should place a bet.  i will be surprised if anybody can tell me when to place a bet. the future not ours to see.

Mr J

Quote from: Kelly on December 03, 2011, 06:40:28 AM
I rest my case. 

Don't hate the player, hate the game.   :laugh: If you can't win Kelly, its not my fault.

Ken

bombus

 :)

If you bet on 3 numbers for 100 spins then you will require 8.33 hits to break even, and 9 hits will profit 8%.

There is a probability of only 3/37 for any 3 numbers hitting on any spin, but there is a 100% probability that at least one group of 3 adjacent numbers will hit at least 9 times in 100 spins.

Try it yourself. Download 100 spins from random.org and run then through RX. Check the number statistics for any set of spins and there will always be at least one 3 adjacent number group that shows a profit, or hits above probability.

You could use any 3 numbers, but adjacent numbers are more practical to follow.

So there is more than 1 probability at work here. There is the probability of independent trials, and the probability of accumulated trials. They both rely on the same results but operate within separate dimensions. The first probability is rigid and unyielding. But the second is elastic and submissive.

If you get 100 people to give 1 number each then run the stream through RX the result will be very similar. There will be at least one 3 adjacent number group that profits or hits beyond probability. This shows that the probability of accumulated trials operates separately from the probability of independent or single trials. We could therefore surmise that the probability of accumulated trials is dependent on past results.


Example:




In this example there are 17 x 3 number combinations that hit above probability. That's 45.95% (almost half) of the available combinations. So, again in this example, just by randomly betting on 3 adjacent numbers you have close to 50% chance of winning.

1.2.3 w
2.3.4 w
3.4.5 w
4.5.6 w
5.6.7 L
6.7.8 L
7.8.9 L
8.9.10 L
9.10.11 L
10.11.12 L
11.12.13 L
12.13.14 L
13.14.15 L
14.15.16 L
15.16.17 L
16.17.18 L
17.18.19 L
18.19.20 L
19.20.21 w
20.21.22 w
21.22.23 w
22.23.24 w
23.24.25 w
24.25.26 w
25.26.27 L
26.27.28 L
27.28.29 w
28.29.30 w
29.30.31 L
30.31.32 w
31.32.33 w
32.33.34 w
33.34.35 L
34.35.36 L
35.36.0 L
36.0.1 w
0.1.2 w



bombus

 :)

Here's the thing... there are ways to guess or speculate on the outcomes using the probability of accumulated trials, but once you have decided what to bet on, those bets are bound by the probability of independent trials.

So whatever fandangled bet you come up with, it's a good idea not to push it beyond the probablilty for that particular bet on that particular attack.

If it don't win within the expected probability then dump it and move to the next attack.


iggiv

Quote from: Mr J on December 03, 2011, 11:44:19 AM
Don't hate the player, hate the game.   :laugh: If you can't win Kelly, its not my fault.

Ken

Kelly CAN

Mr J

Kelly 'can' do whatever he wants to but the thing he will NOT do, is to bring me DOWN to his level. I won't apologize to ANYONE for doing 'well' with this game.

Ken

iggiv

keep goin. if someone is skeptical why should u care? the only one who really needs a prооf  of your winnings is yourself.
but if someone is skeptical it does not mean that he loses the game either

Mr J

Quote from: iggiv on December 06, 2011, 01:43:24 AM
keep goin. if someone is skeptical why should u care? the only one who really needs a prооf  of your winnings is yourself.
but if someone is skeptical it does not mean that he loses the game either

Thats fair enough and I said it before......I'm still WAITING for someone to show me, their way of playing this game is better than my way(s).

Ken

Bayes

Quote from: bombus on December 05, 2011, 07:25:26 PM
:)

Here's the thing... there are ways to guess or speculate on the outcomes using the probability of accumulated trials, but once you have decided what to bet on, those bets are bound by the probability of independent trials.

So whatever fandangled bet you come up with, it's a good idea not to push it beyond the probablilty for that particular bet on that particular attack.

If it don't win within the expected probability then dump it and move to the next attack.

:clapping:

Why limit yourself to one simple probability? True, knowing only that the probability of a single number hitting is 1/37 won't help, but there are many other probabilities which when taken into account, can indicate a better bet than random betting would give. If probability is the best guess given partial information, then it follows that more information will give you a better guess.

Take the even chances, the probability of red hitting is approximately 0.5. But streaks are to chops (and vice-versa)  as red is to black, probability-wise, so from a  sequence of:

R
R
 B
R
R
R
R
 B
R
R
 B
R
R
R
 B
R

You can form the following sequence:

S
 C
S
 C
S
 C
S
 C

where S = streak, and C = chop.

Now, the first sequence has 12 reds vs 4 blacks, so on the criteria of "balance" it might seem that black is "due", but this isn't the case with regard to the 2nd sequence, which is just as valid probabilistically, only looking at the R/B sequence from another dimension, as it were.

Just as valid are a number of other dimensions you can extract from the same raw data; the following ratios are ALL equal to a probability of 0.5 ie; as red is to black:

The number of series of 2 to the number of series higher than 2.
The number of series of 3 to the number of series higher than 3.
etc...
The number of isolated singles vs the number of SERIES of singles.
The number of series of singles of 2 vs the number of series of singles higher than 2.
The number of isolated series of 2 vs the number of series of 2 in series
etc...

Randomness doesn't only have breadth but it also has depth. So taking the 2nd sequence above, you can re-apply the operation of taking the chops vs streaks and end up with:

C
C
C
C
C
C


ie: a run of 6 consecutive chops, and this is also perfectly valid.

So by taking into account further probabilities which are derived from the raw data of R/B, you can make better guesses as to the next R or B.



 

Nathan Detroit

Among roulette pros this one  number betting method is also known as the ANDRUCCI System and has been around for  years .  .

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!

bombus

Quote from: Nathan Detroit on December 06, 2011, 11:11:34 AM
Among roulette pros this one  number betting method is also known as the ANDRUCCI System and has been around for  years .  .

Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!

What one number betting method in this thread are you referring to?

pins

three numbers in hundred spins. say you check 37 spins and often one street sleeps. and you back that street.

bombus

Quote from: pins on December 06, 2011, 07:08:13 PM
three numbers in hundred spins. say you check 37 spins and often one street sleeps. and you back that street.


The probability for one street hitting in 37 spins is 3/37 so if you did decide to bet on that street then you should probably only bet on it 12 times max, limiting the loss to 36 units, then find another street to bet on.

bombus

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