Its All About PROBABILITY

[bombus]

So by taking into account further probabilities which are derived from the raw data of R/B, you can make better guesses as to the next R or B.

... once you have decided what to bet on, those bets are bound by the probability of independent trials.

[Nathan Detroit]

bombus,

I am refering to the method by Mr J betting  one   hot number  from a certain  amount of previous spins which is very similar  to the ANDRUCCI system.



Nathan Detroit
HAPPY WINNINGS!!!

[bombus]

Ok, I see it now.

Thanks ND.

[ReDsQuaD]

Mr J.

I don't really know the dynamics of what you are doing.

But,

when you are referring to "Hot numbers" Do you mean you are playing on biased wheels?

[pins]

what imeant was you reckon that in a hundred spins you will get 8 hits on three numbers. if a street sleeps for 40 spins can i expect 8 hits in the next  60 spins. if so i could make a nice profit.

[bombus]

I see what you mean.

Yes there will always be some 3 number combinations that get at least 8 hits, and they don't have to be streets, but I did not say how you would know which ones. If anything a street that sleeps for 40 spins would be best left alone in preference to a street that is punching above its weight.

[ll l ll l lll ll]

Why limit yourself to one simple probability? True, knowing only that the probability of a single number hitting is 1/37 won't help, but there are many other probabilities which when taken into account, can indicate a better bet than random betting would give. If probability is the best guess given partial information, then it follows that more information will give you a better guess.

I think your thinking is spot on and has a lot of merit.  Tracking the occurance of singles vs. doubles vs. triples etc... in regards to probability can be the difference in the accuracy of predicting future outcomes, or educated guesses.  Is this how you play?

[Bayes]

I take account of other probabilities because it gives you a bigger picture of what MAY happen next. If things don't go the way I predicted, after a couple of spins I move on to another target. It's all RANDOM, and the only constant is change, but playing this way keeps the losing runs to a minimum.

[cheese]

It's all RANDOM, and the only constant is change

Random is the most important aspect. Reading random
isn't a joke, its not possible to win consistantly without
the ability read random well enough to make accurate
educated guesses. The hardest thing for people to get
used to is the game resets itself after every spin. Its
the human tendency to hope or think things will continue
on in some recognizable and dependable way. With random
thats impossible. You almost have to think random to be
able to read it, like you do with a foreign language.

[Bayes]

Random is the most important aspect. Reading random
isn't a joke, its not possible to win consistantly without
the ability read random well enough to make accurate
educated guesses

Having pooh-poohed this notion in the past, it pains me a little to have to agree with you, but I have to admit it makes a difference. If I switch off and bet like a robot using some purely mechanical method, I lose far more than if I pay attention and use what I know about probability to choose the next bets. The AP guys will scoff, but I don't care. 

I prefer the even chances because of the symmetry; it's easy to know where you are at any time and where you have to get to in order to reach your target.

[cheese]

I prefer the even chances because of the symmetry; it's easy to know where you are at any time and where you have to get to in order to reach your target.

Once you understand and prove to yourself the bets on the layout
are all equal, the EC's is the only sane way to play. Yes, the dozens
pay more, but you also lose more. The EC's are balanced and dependable,
and there are lots of them on a roulette layout. You can make at least
a dozen more using the streets, than just the R/B, H/L and O/E.

[bombus]

 
Almost everyone knows all the layout bets boil down to the same odds, but I can't agree that makes the EC's the 'only sane way to play'. And if they are then surely the available layout EC's should be enough to do the job. Adding in combinations of streets, dozens & streets, etc, will complicate the game beyond the desired balanced and dependable nature of the layout EC's not to mention the added complication in staking. If you bet the sixlines everything is X3, if you start betting on streets everything is X6. Where do you stop?

[cheese]

You bet 3 double streets to get same outcome as betting an EC. I
don't do it, but I could. Its the sane way to play because the EC's
are balanced and uncomplicated. When you sit down and play for
real money, complication is the last thing you want.

[iggiv]

the EC's is the only sane way to play.

that's a pretty bold statement, buddy Cheese...

[ll l ll l lll ll]

Here's something that wasn't copied from Wiki, it comes from
here:  nolinks://nolinks.math.utep.edu/Faculty/mleung/probabilityandstatistics/beg.html



"The first major accomplishment in the development
of probability theory was the realization that one
could actually predict to a certain degree of accuracy
events which were yet to come."

How is using probability and predicting future events different from gamblers fallacy?

[ll l ll l lll ll]

-