[System] Wheel Sector Play

[Advantage.Player]

Jeez that would have to be the first time it "Failed" - so far i have personally never lost from trying/playing my system so i guess theres a first time for everything.

For my curiosities sake the chance of your outcomes were ~1.29% so that equates to 1 in 77.5 (2 in 155)

All up ive done around 18 - 20 tests of my system. So lets make it 19. And assuming the outcome you got was as bad as it can get (i haven't seen any worse   ) that means i should lose 1 game out of 77.5 so that equals 2 in 155.

Now after playing 19 games (19 times i tested my system) the chance of losing during those 19 was 24.51% (assuming chance of losing was on each game was  1.29%)

So really despite how many tests i've done it wasn't enough to truly "test" this strategy (around 100 to be sure) - oh well, it never was claimed to be infallible. Good thing it was picked up here and not at the roulette table.

Further more, in all statistics anything more than 4 standard deviations out of place is pretty much omitted BUT as John Solitude said, you have to be able to qualify for FIVE standard deviations, which from all my teachings is to many however for roulette nothing is too much  

So taking 5 SD into account if you watch a group of twelve for 100 spins and there are LESS than ~16 hits you should bet on that sector BUT to get 16 hits is HALF of the expected value and the mathematical probability of finding a sector with such deficiency of hits is a mere 3.7% - this then translates into a 3.7% chance of actually playing this kinda of a system!

For what ever its worth the same maths can be applied to the before mentioned system giving you a chance of 0.427% chance of actually playing however the wheel suffers from trends so practically there is a far greater chance then 0.427% of playing (the system as described in post 1).

In conclusion, you CANT beat roulette.

Its a negative expectations game but you don't have to beat it to make a profit!

BUT the thing is that if you DONT beat it (house adv.) you cant play for too long because once you enter the illusive "long run" the house edge catches up to you and your initial winnings which are most likely the outcome of luck or trends are taken back to the casino.

However, ill still try my best to profit from roulette - or blackjack, but in blackjacks case if you win theres only one reason, card counting and the casinos know this so it wont be long before you get refused.

So roulette all the way it is - at least this thread crosses off one system of my "potential" system list. Making my testing life easier.

Thank you all for contributing.

PS don't discard this system - if i were to have kept playing with all the profit i made using this method (10K) id still have a CLEAR profit - just because it failed once or twice doesn't mean is a "bad" system (i've still made money out of it), after all if you had a system which NEVER failed it would be infallible and thats impossible. So yeah, its a working system - one for the long run.

Cheers, Advantage Player.

[bobco]

If it wins much more than lose then it's no problem. You don't want the losses came in row however.
I will try it today and see if I get a chance to bet but I stick to 0,1 or maximum 2 hits. I also wait for a virtual bet to hit first.

[Advantage.Player]

With those guidelines your pretty much good to go.

Recently Ive been playing with John Solitudes methods which are really similar to my strategy and it seems to work - probably because he sets conservative limits for when to stop at.

[bobco]

I managed to test this today for real and it worked  [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

It went down a bit first and I was just little above when I reached the 25th spin. Some spin more and I was on plus +48 units. I play with small units and could have gone up a bit more but I prefered to stop for this time.
This is a system you can't play more than a few times a day because you must wait for the chance to come. I waited for over an hour this time too.
This is logical because if a certain area don't hit so much for a few time it has to hit more later. Now, the wheel isn't perfect so a loss will sometime come. Hopefully I'm well ahead at that time. So I will give this more try.

[Advantage.Player]

Good the hear bobco;

Over the course of this testing i've noticed after the 25 qualifying spins your profit will go negative then up towards the end - perhaps you can "pretend" to play on the chosen sector and then once you notice it wins more than looses you could bet money?

Shame you had to wait for an hour - on Dublin bet i only waited for i think 30 mins max - but that was at a nearly empty table.

Good luck on future tests  

[hermes]

With those guidelines your pretty much good to go.

Recently Ive been playing with John Solitudes methods which are really similar to my strategy and it seems to work - probably because he sets conservative limits for when to stop at.

AP, who told you that roulette is not beatable? Comments to the BJ, you cannot count cards in BJ with 8 decks and electronic shuffling machines - mission impossible.
Yes, your system is a younger brother of Raindrop and can be perfected. I am working on an idea. How long you have to chart for 4 standards?
Hermes

[xman1970]

Keep on Rolling Guys  [smiley=thumbsup.gif] [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

Every system need testing and tweaking......


I wish you well.... [smiley=wink.gif]

[Advantage.Player]

@ hermes

Well for Four SD's say you chart for 50 Spins.

Ex(x) = np [Expected Value]

SD(x) = (npq)^0.5 [Standard deviation]

n=trial
p=probability of success
q=probability of failure

So assuming you want a 12 number sector

Expected value is 12/37 * 50 = ~16 hits (16.216)

Standard deviation is (12/37 * 25/37 * 50)^0.5 = 3.31

So 16.216 - 4(3.31) gives us 2.976

So chart for 50 and if less then or equal to 3 hits you are ready.

Hope thats what you wanted.

But the chance of getting these results are 0.003217% - making finding a sector which such a deficiency harder.

[hermes]

@ hermes

Well for Four SD's say you chart for 50 Spins.

Ex(x) = np [Expected Value]

SD(x) = (npq)^0.5 [Standard deviation]

n=trial
p=probability of success
q=probability of failure

So assuming you want a 12 number sector

Expected value is 12/37 * 50 = ~16 hits (16.216)

Standard deviation is (12/37 * 25/37 * 50)^0.5 = 3.31

So 16.216 - 4(3.31) gives us 2.976

So chart for 50 and if less then or equal to 3 hits you are ready.

Hope thats what you wanted.

But the chance of getting these results are 0.003217% - making finding a sector which such a deficiency harder.

Yes, I agree that's tough!
I turned the whole idea upside down. Chart 18 spins for the most coming numbers and chose 12. Bet the 12 for next 18 spins with flat progression (John Solitude's Raindrop?). If 18 spins cannot give you enough numbers to chose 12 chart until 24 spins, but that's maximum. We want to exploit the 3/3 law. That's Gauss Bell. Try that. We will go for the winners, not for the sleepers. In winter they are exhosted and sleep longer.
Hermes

[bobco]

Tried this today as well with real money but not that succesful like yesterday. It went down at first. Was on plus after a while but back after 25 spins. Never recovered and I finished the 50 spins back about - 28 units. Not a big deal but I think I will be more careful playing this.
Good idea anyway.

[Advantage.Player]

The problem with this method is that you have to stop while ahead (gods knows when though  :-? ) because to make profit your sector MUST hit MORE that expected - meaning theres another part of the wheel which is being hit less - and you got it; that less hit sector is going to start getting hit more (but we don't know when until its too late - ie. when we start to lose) - this HAS to happen so that roulettes numbers and their hits are distributed by a bell curve graph; which is a mathematical fact.

That is why, although John Solitudes method seems to be better; all though it relies on the same maths - he plays with a progression for one hit and only one hit, while in my method I'm trying to literally "milk" the sector of wins  

So this method is design to work on roulettes far from perfect outcomes - hits in sectors are not distributed evenly and then trying to take advantage of it. however in an "ideal" example of how "bad" roulette is you would expect the wheel to miss one sector  (hit less than expected) for a while then soon it will miss another sector and hit the previous sector (hit more than expected).

But even still it turns out that some times its not this "perfect" as one sector may hit less then expected, next hit AS expected, thirdly hit less then expected and then FINALLY hit more than expected (meaning this is the only time we've made profit) - but it could go on hitting as or less than expected for 100's of spins before finally hitting more that expected and ultimately making profit.

In conclusion, the maths behind it is the only way to "beat" (get some advantage in) roulette but to be SURE of winning much more than losing you should stick to John Solitudes "one shot" method - qualify for a number of spins then bet until a win then repeat.

[cps10]

I like how this is done...however, I would probably play a progression take a win and then backtrack to find out the next set of numbers to play.

[hermes]

I like how this is done...however, I would probably play a progression take a win and then backtrack to find out the next set of numbers to play.

Put stoploss, not stopwin and bet for 3 wins with 12# Raindrop progresion. I tested a couple of 100 spins and won all. If you chose an empty sector of 12 don't include the numbers which hit during charting. I got better results. I do the same at Raindrop, it works.
Hermes.

[toby]

hermes, an idea I half tested because my current way of play takes me 100% time is the following:

1)get a numbers layout written on a piece of paper
2)chart or get the last numbers spun
3)delete each number spun until there are only 12 left
4)when you have 12 non-hit-numbers you wait for the first hit
5)you start playing on then up to the 1st hit until any profit, you stop then
6)to chart again you take the last spins, you delete numers from the end of the chart until you have 12 non hit numbers again and repeat the same procedure again.


The way I tested it was flatbetting and taking 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7 and 6 numbers to chase, same procedure.
You only leave the set of numbers if you get any profit(+1), if not you keep on playing them.
You add the next set of numbers(11) if you hit any of the 12 played and you are not in profit.
So you play on the 12 plus the new 11, eleven numbers with 2 chips and 1 with 1 chip.
The same with 10 numbers and so on, you only leave th set of numbers that gave you profit, you need a separate balance.

I´ve done this 10 times and each session gave me an average of 130 units each.
This keep this system as a back up to go in case of not knowing what to do.

I wait for your comments.

toby

[hermes]

Toby,
Your idea is not completely clear to me. How many numbers do you chart for elimination of repeaters? When you don't hit you bet 23 numbers? (12+11). There is a similar system as you describe called roulettepro.pdf inside the 302 systems (JLP knows the Web Site).
The best way would be if you could write down some example from your play. I am a visual person I have to see some piece of game first, then I analyze.
Thanks, Hermes

[hermes]

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