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John1234

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2+capping with delayed progression
June 29, 2009, 03:15:07 PM
I have deleted a few posts. I have done this for a few reasons...

1.) I presented the two plus capping idea and messed up with some instructions

2.) I have begun my testing on 3000 live shoes but I have tweaked the method. There has been one small change to the bet selection which has produced more winning shoes.
3.) I tweaked the method because it has to fit choppy shoes as well has streaky shoes.


Posts that will be coming soon...
-Most of the rules are still the same. I have all of the information saved on my computer. I just have to go back and edit some of the information. I will have the rules reposted at some point.  
-I will post example shoes
-After I make the next few posts I am not going to do anymore tweaking, I will only be here to explain the method. From that point on I will be testing and posting results. The only way I will change the method is if someone has a really good idea.

I have posted the Tweaked Method

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sniper

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
June 29, 2009, 08:09:52 PM
Hello John1234,

Thanks for your baccarat system. We will work hard on this and make it profitable.

Regards
sniper

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Natural9

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
June 30, 2009, 02:34:42 AM
Good one John I wil ltest some when I can too I am so busy with work at the moment I harly got time to scratch myself :laugh: :blink:

Also can you show how a choppy shoe would play and so you dont play chops n ow i have a feeling coppy shoes will kill the BR and there are lots of choppy shoes to play

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sniper

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
June 30, 2009, 07:56:45 AM
Hello John1234,

Thank you very much for your clear explanation and illustration. Your post is well done and educative. We will all try our level best to test out your baccarat system and make it a long term success.

Good Luck and Best Wishes.

sniper

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John1234

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
June 30, 2009, 04:04:56 PM
Natural9- I am also busy so testing is hard for me to do as well. I have been trying to test some shoes at the end of the night. I will post a choppy shoe at some point. And as you said, a choppy shoe will kill the bankroll, but maybe there is a way to alter the method to perform betting in choppy shoes. I have a few ideas. I will post about one Idea that I have soon.

Sniper: Thank you...I think that it has a lot of potential for long term success however it needs a few tweaks.

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John1234

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
June 30, 2009, 06:36:50 PM
Update: The tweak to the method is working perfect. I am testing and everything is going to plan. I should have the details up soon. It is so simple to play to.

All of the shoes that I would lose on I am winning on and the shoes that I would win on, I am only winning fast on.

Most of the time I have been finishing the win goal midway through the shoe.


I will not get to post details until late tonight because I will be out till then.  


The tweak seems to adjust to the flow of the shoe and if it is too slow in adjusting then the tweak to the progression will make up for it. So now a choppy shoe is good for the method and a streaky shoe is even better.


Oh and I am sorry to anybody who did all of the reading in the posts that I deleted. I promise that I won't do it again.

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John1234

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
June 30, 2009, 11:14:12 PM
Here is the updated version of 2+capping with a delayed progression

First I will introduce the idea:

I originally started with the 3+capping method. The 3+capping method has been successful short term but I do not know about long term. I am not leaving the 3+capping idea behind, I am just putting it off to the side for now. I think I may have found a more effective and safer method. I don't know if anybody has come up with this method, but it is new to me.

Yesterday I posted the 2+capping idea but I had to remove the posts because I tweaked the method and I tweaked some of the rules to the progression. The 2+capping method provides more betting opportunities than the 3+capping method. This means that you have the opportunity to make your win goal faster. Many times you can make your win goal by flat betting 1 unit, this means that sometimes you do not need to go to the 2 unit level.

The Tweak to the method: I changed the recovery bet selection. This method relied on streaky shoes. I had to find a way to adapt it to choppy shoes. This did not take long. I stumbled upon a recovery bet selection by mistake. The new recovery bet selection seems to fit well on both streaky and choppy shoes.

I also added some rules to the progression.


I have made my profit goal in every session. The goal is to win more shoes then I lose while keeping losses to a min. The next post is going to be the bet selection, progression, rules and so on.

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John1234

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
June 30, 2009, 11:57:00 PM
First I will explain what 2+capping is:

2+capping is 2 or more of the same outcome, followed by the opposite outcome.

Here are examples:

BBP---2+ of B followed by P................PPB---2+of P followed by B...........BBBP---2+ of B followed by P........PPPPPPPB---2+ of P Follwed by B

To drive home the idea:

The 2+ is the streaking side. The cap is the side the breaks the streak.

Example: BBBB P----2+is the streak which is B,,,,,The cap is P because it broke the B.

Now when you get to the cap you bet for the cap to return as the next outcome. So the 2+capping is the trigger then you bet for the cap to streak. This is the main bet. This is the 2+capping bet.

Example BBP (you have the trigger now you bet for P to come out again.) The ideal result should look like this BBPP

Example 2.) BBBBP (2+capping trigger now bet for P to come out again). Ideal result should look like this BBBBPP

Example 3. ) PPPPPPPB (2+ capping trigger now bet for B to come out again). Ideal result should look like this PPPPPPPBB

With the 2+capping the ideal results should aways be BBPP, BBBPP, PPBB, PPPBB and so on.

Now obviously the ideal result will not always occur. Here is a losing bet: PP B P

Now I will explain what you do when you lose. HERE IS THE TWEAK

This is where I had my first problem when testing. I had to deal with the question of: Should I begin a recovery bet selection to recover back to even or should I just wait for the next capping opportunity? Well I honestly do not know which is a better Idea. I went with using a recovery bet selection to go back to even and I have not looked back. If someone can prove that it is a better idea to not use the recovery bet selection then I am all for it. But for right now I will explain the method as it currently stands.

If you lose then you begin to bet the previous outcome. By doing this you begin to play with the flow of the shoe. So if the shoe gets choppy then you will be betting in line with the chops. If the shoe gets streaky then you will be betting with the streaks. It is that simple....and this tiny changed to the recovery bet selection has sent my win rate up 100% so far in testing. By betting the last outcome, you are not only betting with the flow of the shoe but you are also decreasing the amount of bets that you could possibly make...that is a good thing. The next key to the recovery is to bet back to even. Sometimes going for that one extra unit will cause you to make many bets that you do not want to make just for one unit.


[/color]
First I will explain what I mean when back to even: Back to even means that if you were +2 units before the capping bet and you lose you bet until you are back to +2. When you get back to +2 units (EVEN) you stop and wait for the next trigger.
Exception to the back to even rule: Sometimes I will go for the extra unit but only if I have not won one unit in a many bets. I rarely do this. This move is a matter of whether you are willing to take the risk for the extra unit.

Now I will explain again what I mean by bet the previous outcome and I will give an example
When you lose the 2+capping bet you enter the recovery bet. This is when you are betting based on what the previous outcome was.

Example:

B
B
B
P 2+capping trigger bet for P to come next
B Lose, now bet previous outcome, so you are betting for P to come next
P Win  you are even so stop betting

Example:

P
P
P
B  2+capping bet, so you bet for B
P Lose, so now you bet for B to come since you are betting the previous outcome.
P Lose, Now you are betting P again since you are betting for the previous outcome.
P Win and Bet P again since it is the previous outcome
P Win. Even so stop


As you can see you cannot lose to a long streak of chops and you cannot lose to a long streak of P's or B's. This was a major problem that the 3+capping method could not overcome.

Now I will explain the Progression: SECOND TWEAK

-I have only tried one progression with this method and it worked. I don't know how a positive progression would work, maybe a positive progression would be more effective, I am not sure.

-The progression is a delayed negative progression. I think this might be Gr8player's progression from GG but I am not sure. If this is his progression then I do not play it like he does, but I do like the basic idea of it.

The progression has 7 bets before you go up a level. here it is

1111111, 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5, 2222222, 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5, 3333333, 3.5 and so on.

-as you can see you are going up .5 units with each level and there are 7 bets in each level.

Now I will explain how you track and play the progression as well as the rules that I made for the progression

How to play it:

You record each bet as Bet1, Bet 2, Bet 3, bet 4, bet 5, Bet 6, Bet 7. If you go to the second level then you always start over at Bet 1 and continue the count up to 7. If you go to the next level then you reset the Bet count at 1 and go to 7. When you go down a level you do the same...reset the bet count to 1, and go to 7.

You are always working your way to Bet 7 whether you win or lose.

So you are always going up in the level. During a level you never go down. However you can go up and down levels. For example during the 1 unit level you are always going up to bet 7.
You can go from the 1 unit level to the 2 unit level to the 3 unit level to the 1 unit level. You can go up and down between levels.

Here are the rules for the progression.  
 

when to go up a level in the progression: You go up a level in the progression ONLY AFTER you have reached bet 7 AND ONLY if you have not recovered back to even

Upon recovering back to even stay at the level that you are at. So if you were +3 units and you get to the 2 unit level and you recover back to +3 units you stay at the 2 unit level all of the way to bet 7. After you complete bet 7 you stay at the 2 unit level and you do not go back down to the 1 unit level. This is important because this will help you acheive your win goal faster if your recovery bets are out of sync with the shoe.

 When to go down a level in the progression: You only go down a level if you have gotten to high for comfort in your progression. So if you are around the 4-5 unit levels and you have recovered back to even, then start to climb down the progression as though it is a ladder. Do not jump down to the 1 unit level because you may not achieve your win goal by the end of the shoe.


Rules for the method

1.) Win goal is 5.5-7 units per shoe. If you play the shoe out then you can obviously make more but I like to have a win goal to decrease my venerability to the casino. When you achieve your win goal you stop. I usually shoot for 6-7 units. In testing I have made the win goal around the 40-55 decisions of 8 deck shoes. Even though there is still about half a shoe left, I do not like to play it out. I take my winnings and wait for the next shoe.  

2.) Stop loss is between 15-20 units. If you lose this much then you probably just need to wait for a new shoe. If you are winning more than you lose then you will easily recover within the next few shoes. And trust me, this method will lose from time to time.

3.) follow the progression rules as I described above they are extremely important. Even though the recovery bet selection helps to get you in sync with the flow of the shoe that does not always happen right away. Sometimes it takes a few losses before you begin to recover back to even. Accepting the losses is important because you can not win every bet.

4.) follow the rules about the recovery bet selection. *If the recovery betting has gone on for a long period of time then I do not try to recover back to even. I will accept a 1-2 unit loss and wait for the next 2+capping opportunity.


Here some final thoughts before I conclude this post.

You are obviously not going to win every single shoe. Some shoes may make the win goal, some shoes may come close to it, and some shoes may lose. This is why it is important to have a stop loss. I would make the stop loss around 15-20 units but I will know for sure after testing. A stop loss is so important because it gets you out of a shoe that you cannot win. A problem that many gamblers have is that they do not know how to quit when they are losing. I had this problem when I first started and I still have this problem from time to time. I don't know much about professional gambling but I would guess that professionals know when to get out of a shoe, a session, whatever you want to call it. I think getting out of a shoe at the right time is one thing that separates those of us that make money from those of us who lose. It makes more sense to use common sense and realism as the major tools for gambling rather than luck, wishful thinking, whatever you want to call it.

If this method can win more than it losses then we should have no problem accepting a loss.


I am here to answer any questions. I will be posting some example shoes tomorrow. I have 3000 live shoes to test so I can really put this thing to the test. I will be posting results as I test.

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sniper

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
July 01, 2009, 08:13:16 AM
Hello John1234,

Thanks again for your system. Regarding the recovery part, I believe a quite common pattern in baccarat,the "double chop" can cause some damage. Losses is part of the game and cannot be rid off totally. As long as there are more winners than losers, we will be successful in the long run.

Example

B
B
B
P  2+capped
B  LOSS      (double chop starts here)
B  LOSS
P  LOSS      
P  LOSS
B  LOSS
B  LOSS

John1234, I believe we will never find a perfect outcome. The most important thing is to know what we are losing to. We will then be able to use a progression to wrap around it. There will still be losses somehow. The most important thing left here is, if the BS and MM combination can take care of big losses, then we have a potential long term winner. Professionals always believe in "win some loss some", end of the day as long as there is some profit left, it's success.

Regards

sniper

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John1234

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
July 01, 2009, 05:40:48 PM
Sniper:

Thanks for the post. I agree with everything that you say and I am not trying to find the perfect method. My goal is to have some profit left over by the end of my sessions.

Here is my take on the double Chop that you were talking about:

I agree that the double Chop can damage you during a recovery. But it is also important to remember that double chop and also work to your advantage. The double Chop is the 2+capping bet. So if the shoe is generating many double chops then it can be good and bad.

Double Chops are good because they are the two plus capping bet. Double Chops are bad because they will hurt you during the recovery. So the key to keep losses to a minimum is to find a way to use this information to our advantage. To use the double chop to our advantage during a losing recovery we would simply have to accept a loss then wait for the next 2+capping opportunity to begin betting.

I like this new recovery more because it works for both streaks and chops. As you pointed out double chops are dangerous but at least they work to your advantage as well. This method will never have a perfect bet selection, but if it has a good bet selection then i will be more than happy.

I will be posting some shoe examples soon

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John1234

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
July 01, 2009, 05:47:09 PM
Sniper-

I also like your statement about knowing what we are losing to and wrapping the progression around it. I am not sure how to construct a recovery to that statement but I like your statement because it shows that you really need to be paying attention to what is going on within the shoe when you are playing baccarat. Sometimes you need to make a bet that is more in line with the texture of the shoe rather then what the rules of the mechanical method dictate. So if you see that a shoe keeps throwing out a losing pattern then it is probably a good idea to use that information to your advantage and there are a few ways to do so.

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John1234

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
July 01, 2009, 06:39:25 PM
Here is an example shoe. It was the first shoe from the 3000 live shoes that I plan to test. It was a very easy shoe to play. I will post more difficult example shoes as I come across them. This shoe is an ideal shoe to play because I never had to go up levels of the progression. The profit was won by flat betting.

I only play until I make the win goal. I test the way that I play.


B      
B      
B      
B      
P   capping Bet 1    
P      Win +1 unit
B   Capping Bet 2, bet 1 unit   
B      Win +2 units
B      
P   Capping Bet 3, Bet 1 unit   
P      Win +3 units
B   Capping Bet 4, Bet 1 unit   
P           Lose +2 units now start recovery..Bet 5, 1 unit B
B      Win +3 units (even) recovery over
B      
B      
P   Capping Bet 6, Bet 1 Unit
P      Win +4 units
P      
P      
P      
B   Capping Bet 7, Bet 1 unit
B      Win +5 units
B      
B      
B      
B      
P   Capping, (bet count reset stay at 1 unit level) Bet 1
P      Win +6 units---Win goal made but go for 7 units since shoe is going so well...remember win goal is 5.5-7 units
P      
B   Capping Bet 2, Bet 1 unit
B      Win +7 units. Now stop. Max win goal achieved
P      
P      
P      
P      
P      
P      
P      
B      
B      
B      
B      
P      
B      
P      
B      
B      
P      
P      
B      
P      
P      
B      
B      
B      
P      
P      
P      
P      
B      
B      
P      
B      
P      
B      
P      
B      
B      
B      
B      

Total 7 units.

I would have been playing with $20 base bets so that would have been 140 for me.

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John1234

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
July 01, 2009, 06:56:59 PM
I am officially working on the 3000 live shoe test. I will post the results after every 50 shoes that I complete.

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Natural9

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
July 01, 2009, 07:01:57 PM
Don't forget the commission you would have paid On that shoe it would have been .15 of a unit

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sniper

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Re: 2+capping with delayed progression
July 01, 2009, 07:05:59 PM
Hello John1234,

Thanks for your explanation regarding the double chop. I am more relief after hearing your view on this part. Wish you success in your testing.

Regards

sniper